Alex Meshkin

It is not possible to predict the road NASCAR will travel by the time we reach the final 2019 checkered flag, but it will be entertaining to speculate.

This decade begins as NASCAR tail spins in the wrong direction it’s a sharp contrast to the beginning of the last decade when NASCAR viewership, attendance and corporate interest were all surging. Today, all of those trends are in reverse, and this decade will truly define whether NASCAR remains as a mainstream sport or becomes another fledgling motorsport series.

I believe the major stories and events that will affect NASCAR in the coming years will have little or nothing to do with on track racing. So let me begin with a few predictions before we take our first green flag of 2010.

Everyone is aware that a severe sponsor recession is hitting the NASCAR industry. But many are blaming the broader economic crisis as opposed to examining the dreadful trends eroding the NASCAR value proposition. NASCAR is facing a steady drop in television viewership, race attendance and overall fan interest, and the costs to operate a Sprint Cup team has almost tripled since 2002. Today, the top three teams – Hendrick Motorsports, Joe Gibbs Racing, and Roush Fenway Racing— are seeking complete season sponsorships between $22 million to $25 million. With the going rate per race anywhere from $500,000 to $750,000 – is there ANYONE who believes there is a ROI for sponsors at these prices? I don’t believe so.

Another alarming business trend, is that now, most sponsors want single-year deals. These days, a six-race package for $3 million qualifies as a “big deal” in Sprint Cup circles. The marquee free agent among sponsors is Ask.com, which spent about $4 million on its team deal with Hall of Fame Racing for the 2009 season and likely won’t spend more than that on the next deal, if indeed, the search engine decides to stay in the sport. Big name sponsors Allstate, DeWalt, Jack Daniel’s and Jim Beam will leave after this year, choosing to save that money or spend it elsewhere.

And of course, we are all aware of the market forces pushing the automakers to reduce their financial exposure to NASCAR – so I will ask the same simple question I have been asking for two years.

Why isn’t NASCAR doing anything to help the teams to ensure the long term viability of the sport?

I think the answer is pretty simple – they don’t feel they need too. And instead, want to continue pocketing the vast majority of the sports’ lucrative television contracts. And why, you may ask, has NASCAR (France Family) been able to dominate teams? I believe it is because NASCAR teams haven’t united into an association or partnership demanding the right changes to the sport. Just look across the pond to Formula 1 – while they face their own unique challenges, they do have a much more fair and logical business model. The teams are part of an association (Formula One Teams Association – FOTA), that collectively negotiates on financial matters and the adoption of rules affecting competition in their sport.

Whereas, when you look at NASCAR, you have a dictatorship run by Brian France, who I believe most will agree has single handedly undone many of the incredible accomplishments of his late father and grandfather. But as a former NASCAR team owner, I know the teams feel powerless. But it the truth be known, NASCAR is nothing without the teams. Now is the time for the teams to stand up and make a stand – the team owners are the only hope to save NASCAR. Teams must unite on common principles:

• Increased competiveness: major changes are required to the Car of Tomorrow to ignite fan interest
• Reduced operating expenses: less personnel at the track and NASCAR needs to follow the lead of Formula 1 and require race engines to be used at more than one event
• Modern technology: embrace fuel injection and alternative fuels/energy sources to make NASCAR an R&D platform for the automakers.
• Greater Revenue Sharing: Demand an equal share of the television revenues split between NASCAR, Race Tracks and Teams.

These 4 basic principles could reduce annual corporate sponsorship prices from $20 million down to $10 million – a marketing budget that could be justified to corporate executives. Plus, these changes would reignite the automakers interest in investing in the sport and most importantly, bring back the on-track excitement that race fans expect.

If teams do not take a united stand, but rather chose instead to continue to run around in circles spinning their wheels – they are facing certain annihilation.

Rumors are running rampant that Danica Patrick is going to jump from IndyCar to NASCAR. Is this a negotiating tactic with Andretti Green Racing and Chip Ganassi Racing or is she seriously considering a move to stock car racing? One must wonder why the poster child of IndyCar Racing would take the risk and make a move to NASCAR, which undisputedly, is crumbling as I speak. I can image NASCAR dangling HUGE financial incentives and prepackage endorsements, but why take the risk?

On the flipside to NASCAR’s continued problems with retaining the support of the automakers, IndyCar Racing is poised for a significant rebound in sponsorship demand and automotive support in the coming years. There is widespread speculation that Volkswagen/Audi, and possibly Toyota, BMW and Mercedes-Benz may join the IndyCar series in 2012. This is the result of IndyCar’s long-term vision and planning to strategically position itself as a “green” marketing platform for the automakers. A few of years ago, a move to NASCAR may have been considered a “step up” – but one most wonder if that still holds true today. Two of the most prolific IndyCar racers in this past decade struggled (and I am being kind) in their attempt to cross over to NASCAR. Dario Franchitti, the 2007 Indy 500 and IndyCar Champion failed miserably in his 2008 NASCAR foray and Sam Hornish continues to struggle. I don’t mean to be disrespectful to Danica – but she couldn’t remotely keep pace with Sam Hornish or Dario Franchitti in IndyCar, so I don’t expect her to be any more successful than Dario or Sam in NASCAR (Note: Dario and Danica were teammates 2006-2007). The odds are clearly against her if she makes the move.

My sources indicate that NASCAR, led by Brian France is offering significant guarantees to lure Danica to NASCAR. So if her primary motivation is money – we should expect her to make a debut later this year in preparation for the 2010 NASCAR season. A more intriguing question remains – why is NASCAR focused on attracting one driver, when the entire sport, (namely race teams), are facing financial annihilation? This not only is short sighted, but outrageously blind to the real problems facing the sport.

Many believe Danica is NASCAR’s bandage to stop hemorrhaging sponsors, fans and other commercial interest. I remain skeptical. While I agree she would drive a short term bump in ratings- the fundamentals of NASCAR racing is spiraling out of control – and no amount of estrogen is going to stop the bleeding. NASCAR needs to focus on fixing the business model challenges for teams and improving the COT – so the on-track racing can return to what fans deserve and expect.

Treating NASCAR like an amusement park and adding a new “attraction” may seem like a good idea – but in the end, it will only disguise the fundamental challenges that may devastate the sport that many still love. And Danica, well, she may be just another bump in the road for NASCAR – and at the end of the day, regret her move in the wrong lane.

The Associated Press (AP) has reported Brian France, CEO of NASCAR, has directed his management to work with teams in developing new business models that can help them withstand the current economic crisis. As we are all aware, NASCAR teams rely on corporate sponsorship to fund the majority of their operating budgets, which is substantially different than any other major sport. Whereas, NFL, NBA, NHL and MLB teams participate in higher levels of revenue sharing as a result of a franchise business model.

“We’re trying to do more with less. That’s the difficult part of this economy,” France said following his state-of-the-sport address to media at NASCAR’s Research and Development Center. Just back in December, NASCAR issued a statement stating that NASCAR heading into 2009 was “strong”.

This outlook is a rather quick reversal, but perhaps the gravity of the current economic climate and mass sponsor deflections is making an impact.

Doing more with less? Working with teams to develop new business models? I apologize, but in my humble opinion, it’s a little too late for a half-baked plan. But even worse and what is frustrating is NASCAR’s continued unwillingness to restructure the distribution of television revenues to rightly supplement teams’ operating budgets.

What NASCAR needs is a business model which more closely replicates Formula 1 or a franchise structure like every other major sport. As a fervent advocate for team rights, I have repeatedly voiced the need to develop a franchise model that would enable teams to weather macroeconomic difficulties; and subsequently, become less cyclical and more stable during recessions and economic turmoil. The time for leadership, sacrifice and decisive action on behalf of the France Family is NOW. But to the contrary, the Brian France plan is nothing more than reinforcing their past strategies of working with teams to help locate and secure sponsors. While his intentions may be honorable; they are nevertheless naïve when considering there is a global economic recession; and specifically, when the NASCAR industry is in a depression of historic proportions. At this moment, I don’t believe there is a single corporation that is considering spending $15-$30 million required to fund a primary sponsorship program for a NASCAR Sprint Cup team. So I am rather befuddled with Brian France’s simplistic strategy to save the sport, which unfortunately in its current form will contribute to the sport’s certain collapse.

Is it possible that the past success of NASCAR is blinding Brian France from seeing the light? Reflecting back to 60 years ago to the earlier days of NASCAR, Bill France Sr. (Brian France’s grandfather) executed a flawless business plan to convince the then stock car racers and event promoters to become part of his newly formed organization and sanctioning body (NASCAR), whereby he gained complete control over stock car racing. The foundation of NASCAR’s “business model” problems ironically stem from the grand success of Bill Sr. and his unilateral control of a racing empire, including control over the majority of racing venues (International Speedway Corp) and the stock car sanctioning body. Over the past half-century, teams competing in NASCAR relied almost exclusively on corporate sponsors to fund their operations – enabling the France Family to retain a majority of the sports revenues and amass a large network of racing venues, and establishing NASCAR Holdings, an incredibly profitable wholly owned private company.

Those times have dramatically changed and for too long, NASCAR teams have tolerated the exploitation and willingly bore the total burden to exclusively fund their operations through advertising and sponsorship. The rapid increases in costs of racing and teams’ operating expenses of the past 5 years, combined with the minimal increase in sponsorship value – have brought the teams’ very existence into question.

One must wonder, how long can the France Family continue their racing monopoly? Historically, race teams have avoided conflict with the France Family; and the only entities to challenge the France Family’s monopoly have been race track owners, such as Burton Smith and Speedway Motorsports. Even through the France Family has weathered many possible anti-trust challenges with settling most disputes outside the judicial system; I believe the current financial crisis and advertising recession is about to test the resolve of the France Family and their prehistoric business model.

In a stark contrast to the past decade, NASCAR is falsely promoting an image of growth and strength by stating that 15 new organizations have applied for licensing to compete in the Sprint Cup Series. What they fail to mention and what many novices are unaware – almost all of those “new” teams are merely opportunistic racers attempting to profit by a method called: “start and park”, which allows them to collect sizable race winnings (in comparison to their expenses) with a team and car specifically built to just run one or two laps, enabling them to collect profits – all without adding ANY value to the sport. What a sad day it is for the diehard NASCAR fan.

As many of you know, I was the founder of Bang Racing which was NASCAR’s most successful first year team in history. At the young age of 23, I built and operated this highly successful team and we made history finishing 2nd in our first race (Daytona) and winning our 13th race (Michigan International Speedway), which was the first win for Toyota in NASCAR history. While all this is now historical facts found in the archives of NASCAR history, what is typically not understood is that even as a very competitive team, our business model was fundamentally flawed because generating a profit was nearly impossible. Simply put; the cost of running a NASCAR team far exceeds its sponsorship/advertising revenue potential and without significant “business model” changes by the France Family, teams are doomed for failure.

NASCAR must be the only sport where the most profitable teams are the biggest losers’ and where finishing dead-last or not even attempting to win makes more money than being a top competitor. Something is dreadfully wrong when the most competitive teams with great on track performance cannot survive because the costs of running their teams far exceed their revenue potential. The problem is clear: without teams receiving a larger share of the sports’ multi-billion dollar television contracts – there will be no strategy that can make viable a long-term solution for the sport – that is the simple reality.

However, being the “optimist”, I hope Brian France and will realize quickly that his family has the unilateral ability to deliver the change in business model the teams and sport require to survive.

Ad Sponsors Peeling Away From NASCAR, Too

Looking to catch a NASCAR wreck? Here’s one: The racing association’s sponsors are pulling out, NASCAR CEO Brian France told a Reuters summit. France insists he’s talking to potential new sponsors, but wouldn’t name names.

NASCAR saw a $150 million gain in sponsorship revenue in 2008, a gain France says won’t be repeated. “The question is, are we going to back up,” he said.

Over the past several weeks, I have been inundated with inquiries about a variety of topics that I have discussed about the state of NASCAR and the sponsorship crisis. I feel compelled to address and clarify some of my previous statements and respond to a recurring theme of certain readers’ comments.
Many of the NASCAR faithful have repeatedly stated: “the sky is not falling NASCAR has a larger television audience today than in 2001”. While this may true – it has little to do with the enormous problems facing NASCAR today. The problem is one of economics that simply don’t add up.
As a former team owner, I can speak to the fact that there is an alarming disconnect between the highly profitable NASCAR Corporate; and the costs of operating a team and the corresponding costs to sponsor a team. It is NASCAR’s “disconnect” and perhaps even ignorance to the fact that NASCAR teams are facing a sponsorship depression that is the fundamental problem – and it is this blindness that will ultimately cripple NASCAR if they continue down this same pathway.
On Sunday, Brian France, Chief Executive Officer of NASCAR was asked; Are you certain you’ll have 43 car fields next year?

We’re pretty confident about that. I said before to many of you, you know, we’re also criticized for having too many cars.

I don’t know if he is taking lessons from the former Iraq Information Minister – Baghdad Bob.

But unless he is counting on Dave Marcus and Morgan Sheppard – having 43 competitive cars is extremely unlikely.
Just like the global financial crisis, the problems were not created overnight and may require the governing body to stimulate the NASCAR economy. But NASCAR needs far more sweeping changes than just the teams receiving a larger share of the television revenues. A variety of topics that must be addressed include; dramatic cost savings for the teams, incentives which drive fan interest – larger focus on winning -- less on consistency, and greater shares in revenues so teams can sell sponsorship packages for considerably less -- increasing the value proposition for corporate sponsors.
The basic message which seems to be lost in the entire dialogue over the sponsorship crisis – is not that companies haven’t wanted to become involved in NASCAR marketing – it is just cost prohibitive; too much risk and the ROI is difficult to measure. If we withdraw ourselves from the current economic crisis and rewind the clock to 2007; and if teams could have marketed Sprint Cup primary sponsorships for $10 million – do you think we would have the dramatic sponsor shortage of today? I don’t think so – the problem is primarily the price not the product.
Now I want to be clear – the product needs innovation and a fresh approach to bring die-hards back into the fold and make the sport more interesting to all sports’ enthusiasts. However, Brian France has only focused on the latter; and subsequently, by attempting to reach out to non-core fans he not only failed to grow the fan base, but he alienated many loyalists which has diluted the value proposition for many NASCAR sponsors.