This decade begins as NASCAR tail spins in the wrong direction it’s a sharp contrast to the beginning of the last decade when NASCAR viewership, attendance and corporate interest were all surging. Today, all of those trends are in reverse, and this decade will truly define whether NASCAR remains as a mainstream sport or becomes another fledgling motorsport series.

I believe the major stories and events that will affect NASCAR in the coming years will have little or nothing to do with on track racing. So let me begin with a few predictions before we take our first green flag of 2010.

The Car of Tomorrow (COT)

By any account other than driver safety, the COT has been a miserable failure, and many point to the introduction of the COT as a defining moment in the accelerated decrease in fan interest. Since making its debut, the COT has been one of the most controversial rule changes to be introduced in NASCAR. There is no question that NASCAR will eventually make changes to their ill advised COT design, but the question is how dramatic and rapid will changes be introduced. I believe this decision will define the sport in the coming decade, because unless on-track racing significantly improves, NASCAR is doomed to become a second-rate sport with limited commercial exposure.

The Fall of Brian France

Mayfield vs. NASCAR is a fight NASCAR wishes it never fought. First, let me provide a bit of background information. In 2008 NASCAR implemented a clandestine drug testing policy where they refused to provide competitors a list of banned substances. And in 2009, long time driver Jeremy Mayfield, was the first driver to face a suspension for use of a banned substance. The drug was later identified as Methamphetamine, or more commonly known as Meth. (See my blog post in the summer of 2009 for more information – NASCAR in Peril: Victory for Jeremy Mayfield in Drug Testing Legal Battle). What NASCAR didn’t anticipate was Mayfield fighting back and filing a lawsuit to reinstate his license to drive in NASCAR. Both sides have won important decisions, but the court fight continues. However, just recently this soap opera is becoming even juicier, the U.S. District Court has ruled in favor of Mayfield to require sensitive documents about Brian France’s third (or fourth but who’s counting) marriage to be unsealed. Many insiders believe evidence will come forward further tarnishing Brian France’s ability to continue to lead NASCAR into the next decade.

Sprint as the Title Sponsor of the Cup Series

The elephant in the room is the pending expiration of the sport’s lucrative sponsorship agreement with Sprint as title sponsor of the NASCAR Cup Series. Back in the summer of 2003, when Sprint (f/k/a NEXTEL) agreed to a 10 year agreement with NASCAR, no one expected the rapid decline of fan interest and corporate sponsorship within just a couple of years. Ironically, Sprint too has blood on their hands for the sponsorship troubles of racing teams, which contribute to the overall problems in the sport. Sprint pushed out and prevented several companies from sponsoring racing teams, including AT&T Wireless who was prepared to enter NASCAR in 2004 as a primary sponsor, but Sprint through their exclusivity agreement with NASCAR, prevented AT&T from entering the sport. And then, after AT&T Wireless merged with Cingular Wireless (who was grandfathered into sport through their existing sponsorship agreement with RCR), Sprint pushed AT&T Wireless out once again. This was basically the same story for Verizon Wireless and Alltel. But I digress, we are discussing the future, and following the expiration of the current agreement with Sprint there is little doubt NASCAR will be left without a title sponsor of the Cup Series. And with the falling value of the title sponsorship rights, I expect NASCAR to be forced to sell the rights for a deep discount. But like everything else in NASCAR, the teams will bear the brunt of the negative financial consequences.

New Television Contracts

Not unlike, the situation with Sprint as the title sponsor, agreements with the existing television partners expire in a couple of years. And, with the enhanced competition from the NFL, all signs point to a significantly lower value being attributed to the NASCAR contract. The reduction in the sport’s revenues will further hamper smaller NASCAR teams from competing and consequently continue the most alarming trends of decreased fan viewership, attendance and corporate sponsorship.

The Retirement of Today’s Superstars

It’s no secret that Jeff Gordon has been suffering from significant back pain stemming from an on track accident. So the question begs, when will one of the greatest and most popular drivers hang up his racing helmet? Could the dominance of Jimmie Johnson accelerate Jeff Gordon’s retirement? And more so, Jeff Gordon isn’t the only NASCAR star that could retire in the next decade from full-time racing. Is it possible, if Dale Earnhardt Jr.’s performance doesn’t dramatically improve that he might head towards an early retirement? These questions will surely plague NASCAR in the forthcoming decade and could have far reaching effects on the entire sport. Even though in the past several years neither Gordon nor Earnhardt have been top performers on the track, they still remain the top two fan and sponsor favorites. And during a time when NASCAR is desperately trying to stop the hemorrhage of fan and corporate interest, the retirement of one or both iconic names could be devastating.

My negativity is an attempt to bring forth positive change to NASCAR. It is horrifying to watch a sport I have watched most of my life be destroyed. But without question, NASCAR, under the leadership of Bill France Sr. and Bill France Jr. made many wise decisions which helped to elevate the sport to the peaks in 2004. Unfortunately, the management decisions of NASCAR in the last half of the past decade have grossly undermined the sport. Even though the previous generations of the France Family were successful shepherds of NASCAR, under the faltering management of Brian France – NASCAR has failed its competitors, fans and sponsors. If the France Family truly loves NASCAR – then they must consider selling NASCAR to a new ownership group, who is prepared to rebuild the sport before all remains is a storied past.

On the flipside to NASCAR’s continued problems with retaining the support of the automakers, IndyCar Racing is poised for a significant rebound in sponsorship demand and automotive support in the coming years. There is widespread speculation that Volkswagen/Audi, and possibly Toyota, BMW and Mercedes-Benz may join the IndyCar series in 2012. This is the result of IndyCar’s long-term vision and planning to strategically position itself as a “green” marketing platform for the automakers. A few of years ago, a move to NASCAR may have been considered a “step up” – but one most wonder if that still holds true today. Two of the most prolific IndyCar racers in this past decade struggled (and I am being kind) in their attempt to cross over to NASCAR. Dario Franchitti, the 2007 Indy 500 and IndyCar Champion failed miserably in his 2008 NASCAR foray and Sam Hornish continues to struggle. I don’t mean to be disrespectful to Danica – but she couldn’t remotely keep pace with Sam Hornish or Dario Franchitti in IndyCar, so I don’t expect her to be any more successful than Dario or Sam in NASCAR (Note: Dario and Danica were teammates 2006-2007). The odds are clearly against her if she makes the move.

My sources indicate that NASCAR, led by Brian France is offering significant guarantees to lure Danica to NASCAR. So if her primary motivation is money – we should expect her to make a debut later this year in preparation for the 2010 NASCAR season. A more intriguing question remains – why is NASCAR focused on attracting one driver, when the entire sport, (namely race teams), are facing financial annihilation? This not only is short sighted, but outrageously blind to the real problems facing the sport.

Many believe Danica is NASCAR’s bandage to stop hemorrhaging sponsors, fans and other commercial interest. I remain skeptical. While I agree she would drive a short term bump in ratings- the fundamentals of NASCAR racing is spiraling out of control – and no amount of estrogen is going to stop the bleeding. NASCAR needs to focus on fixing the business model challenges for teams and improving the COT – so the on-track racing can return to what fans deserve and expect.

Treating NASCAR like an amusement park and adding a new “attraction” may seem like a good idea – but in the end, it will only disguise the fundamental challenges that may devastate the sport that many still love. And Danica, well, she may be just another bump in the road for NASCAR – and at the end of the day, regret

Many, at first glance, didn’t feel that the Chrysler bankruptcy filing on Thursday would have any effect on the Sprint Cup teams backed by Dodge. And Chrysler was quick to issue a statement on Thursday reaffirming their commitment to NASCAR. It really should not come as a surprise that the new management from Fiat realizes the current iteration of the COT and the marketing platform offered by NASCAR is too expensive and doesn’t align with their new focus. Fiat/Chrysler’s new focus is on small fuel efficient cars and not on outdated large cars that inspired the NASCAR “Car of Tomorrow”.

Many sources strongly believed that Chrysler (Dodge) may pull its NASCAR funding in 2010. As many know, Dodge already slashed its motorsports budget by 30 percent this year. Then the question becomes this: What would happen to the teams that Dodge financially supports, if indeed they pull their support? That is the great unknown.

As I have professed for over two years, NASCAR is facing a crossroad; but yet, it continues down an ill-fated pathway of an outdated “Car of Tomorrow” instead of adopting a fresh approach that would leverage “green technologies” such as, biofuels and renewable energy, and a branding platform that is attractive to companies like Fiat. As I stated in July 2008,

You must wonder – why is NASCAR asleep at the wheel? Over the past decade, NASCAR has developed a phenomenal market platform for all types of companies – but without the financial and marketing support of the carmakers – NASCAR teams can’t afford to operate.
The time is now for NASCAR to embrace tomorrow’s future – alternative energy and fuel efficiency branding is required for the long-term viability of the sport as a marketing platform for the automotive manufacturers. (See: http://tinyurl.com/cwcjpj)

I am a strong believer that negative events create opportunities. NASCAR and the Big 3 (GM, Ford and Chrysler) at one time were going down a parallel road, but unfortunately as NASCAR started to become a rapidly growing mainstream sport in the early part of the decade and corporate sponsors rushed into the sport with their large marketing budgets looking to tap into this brand-loyal demographic, NASCAR lost sight of the value proposition and ROI required to keep the Big 3 involved in NASCAR. In the next couple of years, many will ask, why didn’t NASCAR do more to keep the Big 3 involved? The answer is quite simple, NASCAR and their Teams have a huge disconnect, and what’s good for NASCAR isn’t always what’s best for their Teams. Unlike all other major sports, like the NHL, NBA, MLB, and NFL; NASCAR team owners don’t have any say in the direction and decisions of the sport, nor do they participate in the financial upside during the good times. But what I do know is that they do bare the majority of the consequences during the difficult times. When Chrysler/Dodge leaves NASCAR, many teams will suffer and likely shutdown, but NASCAR Corporate will face very little short-term repercussions.

With the economic recession, dreadful environment for automakers and falling ratings of NASCAR racing, NASCAR has the opportunity to implement needed changes to put the sport in a position for growth and long term sustainability.

The solutions and answers for NASCAR are quite simple: race a car that is aligned with the automakers objectives, provide a fair distribution of revenues to competitors (teams), implement rigid cost controls; and, equally as important, please allow the drivers the freedom to race without the fear of penalties for relatively harmless actions. NASCAR, after all is said is done, should be entertainment.

The founding principle and most basic concept behind NASCAR was and is “stock car” racing; and the ability for carmakers to demonstrate their performance of a car that closely models a car in the local showroom. This principle is no longer applied in NASCAR and is one of the basic problems existing for carmakers today in justifying their marketing expenditures in NASCAR.

“Stock car” doesn’t mean “old” or antiquated but means the use of current technologies which are closely tied to their street car equivalents. The age old adage of “Win on Sunday and Buy on Monday” is no longer applicable in NASCAR – and is contributing to the eroding sales of the Big 3. Furthermore, the COT is alienating carmakers by further dividing marketing objectives of the carmakers and the value proposition of NASCAR.

The future of carmakers exists in plug-in hybrids – the combination of battery power and biofuels. According to Wired; it all starts in 2010. General Motors (GM) promises to have the Chevrolet Volt rolling into showrooms by then. Toyota says it will roll out a small fleet of plug-in Prius hybrids to see how they do. Volkswagen has similar plans for its plug-in Golf. And Fisker Automotive hopes to have a few dozen pricey Karma sedans in driveways within 18 months. Ford and others are moving more slowly, aiming for 2012 and beyond.

It may surprise some to learn that widespread adoption of plug-in hybrids isn’t in the distant future and may be in consideration for your next car. According to Mike Omotoso of J.D. Power & Associates “…we could see critical mass by 2015.”

NASCAR has a real opportunity for leadership – and can provide automotive manufacturers a real marketing platform that demonstrates alternative energy as performance cars – that are viable, affordable and energy efficient – and return NASCAR to its roots as “stock car” racing at its best.

Speedway Motorsports Inc., which owns eight tracks that hold NASCAR events, already has been told GM will not renew contracts at two tracks — New Hampshire Motor Speedway and Bristol Motor Speedway.

Scott Cooper, vice president of communications for SMI, said nobody is panicking.

We’ve seen bad times with the economy before, and we’ll likely see them again, Cooper said Wednesday. At the end of the day, we’ve still got a sport that pairs up well with the American car manufacturers. We believe the sport will continue to have tight relations with those manufacturers.

Read the whole article at ap.google.com

Even though financial uncertainty for the Big 3 car companies is really nothing new – surging fuel prices have disproportionally affected the U.S. carmakers vs. their foreign counterparts. This is because of their reliance on profits from the sale of light-trucks and SUVs. In May, GM saw a 37% decline in light truck and SUV sales; and subsequently its share of the overall U.S. market dropped below 20%, a new low for the automotive giant that in 1980 had 45% of the U.S. market.

Over the past couple of years, as the trends of high fuel prices and the decrease in light truck and SUV sales became a reality – NASCAR adopted rules and policies to further alienate the automotive manufacturers from the sport. Instead of embracing alternative energy branding or a “green” platform – the recent implementation Car of Tomorrow (COT) – is nothing more than an antiquated “led sled” and continues a branding platform that labels the U.S. carmakers as gas guzzlers.

Some may ask, but isn’t racing and “green” technology or fuel efficiency an immediate dichotomy? The simple answer is NO – at least it doesn’t need to be.
I am the last person to believe that Ethanol fuel is the answer to our energy crisis or believe it will be the long-term solution for consumers and carmakers alike. However; one must recognize the success of Honda and their racing program in the Indy Racing League (IRL) – the IndyCar Series.

Back in 2006, the Indy Racing League (IRL) and IndyCar Series adopted the use of Ethanol fuel instead of traditional gasoline to provide Honda (their sole engine provider and automotive manufacturer) a marketing platform to appeal to the growing consumer demographic interested in alternative energy sources and “green” technology. When you compare recent sales results of Honda versus GM, Ford, Chrysler and Toyota – you must see the correlation between their brand positioning and the motorsports platform of the IndyCar Series. As of May 2008, Honda is now selling more cars than Chrysler.

Last week, GM racing director Mark Kent said that every level of motorsports that GM supports-from the giant stock-car racing series NASCAR to the grassroots Sports Car Club of America-is being evaluated. “Racing is not exempt (from cuts),” Kent said last week. Troy Clarke, president of GM North America, added: Motorsports “have not gone without scrutiny. I’m not going to get into specifics about NASCAR. But there will be modifications-changes in our marketing footprint-in this area.”

You must wonder – why is NASCAR asleep at the wheel? Over the past decade, NASCAR has developed a phenomenal market platform for all types of companies – but without the financial and marketing support of the carmakers – NASCAR teams can’t afford to operate.

The time is now for NASCAR to embrace tomorrow’s future – alternative energy and fuel efficiency branding is required for the long-term viability of the sport as a marketing platform for the automotive manufacturers.

While that does sound very nice and tidy, the real reason is far more ominous – and the decision was based upon the economic impact on the independent teams in the Nationwide Series. The introduction of the COT would require teams to replace their entire fleet of race cars and it would be financially inconceivable and ultimately would devastate the Nationwide Series in 2009.

Back in May, I wrote an article Car of Tomorrow (COT) – Friend or Foe for the Nationwide Series; where I foretold of the impending disaster of the COT for the Nationwide Series and quoted Dale Earnhardt Jr. about his race team’s future plans and the viability of the Nationwide Series with the COT:

And they’re going to bring a COT in and we won’t be able to race in the Nationwide Series with the COT probably. That’ll just be too expensive to switch all that over. …And the COT program is going to be too expensive for me to justify creating a whole new program with COT stuff, so I’d just as soon go into the Cup Series or get out of the Nationwide Series altogether.

An official announcement is expected from NASCAR in two weeks.

One of the most comical aspects to the event was listening to Darrel Waltrip, Mike Joy and Larry McReynolds pretend that the event was SO exciting and we all should be more excited about the COT in NASCAR. Are you kidding? They must have been watching the 1987 All-Star Race (Winston) rather than the live event.

Furthermore, Kasey Kahne won the race while not even qualifying to participate based upon his on-track performance; his inclusion in the event was picked via an American Idol style vote. While, I know Kasey personally and think he is a great guy and well deserving to participate in the NASCAR Sprint All-Star Race, the purest in me feels somewhat robbed by compromising the all-star event in an attempt to attract a larger audience.

In any case, rules, COT, and/or track – the days of the hard charging driver willing to make the “pass in the grass” ended with the untimely death of the legendary Dale Earnhardt Sr. Perhaps, Helio Castroneves in the Indy 500 will feed our need for on-track fireworks.

“I used to say no way, no way. But it’s almost as expensive to run in the Nationwide Series. And they’re going to bring a COT in and we won’t be able to race in the Nationwide Series with the COT probably. That’ll just be too expensive to switch all that over.”

“…And the COT program is going to be too expensive for me to justify creating a whole new program with COT stuff, so I’d just as soon go into the Cup Series or get out of the Nationwide Series altogether.”

Dale Jr.’s statements raise an alarming concern on the viability of the Nationwide Series. Let’s be honest – if the Nationwide Series business model doesn’t work for JR/Hendrick Motorsports – why then, would anyone think it would work for someone else? I have a hard time envisioning any other team being able to justify the capital expenditure required to compete in the NASCAR Nationwide Series with the COT. The pending arrival of the COT to the Nationwide Series couldn’t be at a worst economic time. Even teams such as Richard Childress Racing (RCR) are struggling to find new sponsors; and in retrospect, recently announced that the former Championship #21 team would be reducing its schedule in 2008 for the Nationwide Series due to a lack of sponsorship.

It’s undisputed that the COT provides enhanced safety for the drivers – which are undeniably priceless. However, compensation for improved safety should be at the forefront of NASCAR’s economic model and NASCAR should provide assistance for the teams’ through financial allowances to ensure that drivers and crew members are safe; while at the same time, enabling team owners’ to survive. It’s unfortunate that team owners must bear 100% of the financial burden of safety while NASCAR corporate continues to retain the vast majority of revenues and profits – continuing to drain many of the teams’ livelihoods – and perhaps even to the sport’s future longevity.

If I was still an owner of my NASCAR team (Bang! Racing), I would organize the Nationwide Series Team Owners to take a stand and demand financial assistance from NASCAR to adopt the COT in 2009. If Dale Jr. can’t afford to- who in the world can?

Bill Davis Racing, Innovative Motorsports Inc., Waltrip Racing Inc. and Bang Racing, all new to the series, will field Toyota Tundra trucks in the season-opening event Feb. 13 at Daytona International Speedway.

Davis will bring 18-year-old Shelby Howard to the truck series, while Robert Huffman and Hank Parker Jr. will drive for George deBidart’s Innovative Motorsports.

Darrell Waltrip, a three-time Winston Cup champion who is now a TV analyst, has hired David Reutimann as his driver and will get behind the wheel of a second entry for two or three events in 2004.

The new Bang Racing team, co-owned by Larry McReynolds, former Cup crew chief and now also a TV analyst, and Alex Meshkin, has hired 1995 truck series champion Mike Skinner and is expected to run a second entry for new series champion Travis Kvapil.

Davis also will work with Toyota Racing Development in building the race trucks and V8 engines for all four teams.

“What I’ve seen Toyota accomplish in such a short time in the IRL series, and the support they have given those teams … there’s no question that their intentions and goals are the same as they head toward the truck series in 2004,” said McReynolds.

Toyota engines competed in the IRL series for the first time in 2003, and Scott Dixon won the series championship in a Toyota-powered car.

In another truck announcement Friday, General Motors will add to its role in the Craftsman series with sponsorship of three teams.

A Chevrolet Silverado driven by Dennis Setzer for Morgan-Dollar Motorsports will carry the Silverado sponsorship, while Jack Sprague will drive a vehicle sponsored by Chevy Trucks for Xpress Motorsports.

Kevin Harvick Inc., will field a Silverado driven by Matt Crafton and sponsored by GM Goodwrench.

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2003/racing/11/14/notebook.ap/