This decade begins as NASCAR tail spins in the wrong direction it’s a sharp contrast to the beginning of the last decade when NASCAR viewership, attendance and corporate interest were all surging. Today, all of those trends are in reverse, and this decade will truly define whether NASCAR remains as a mainstream sport or becomes another fledgling motorsport series.

I believe the major stories and events that will affect NASCAR in the coming years will have little or nothing to do with on track racing. So let me begin with a few predictions before we take our first green flag of 2010.

The Car of Tomorrow (COT)

By any account other than driver safety, the COT has been a miserable failure, and many point to the introduction of the COT as a defining moment in the accelerated decrease in fan interest. Since making its debut, the COT has been one of the most controversial rule changes to be introduced in NASCAR. There is no question that NASCAR will eventually make changes to their ill advised COT design, but the question is how dramatic and rapid will changes be introduced. I believe this decision will define the sport in the coming decade, because unless on-track racing significantly improves, NASCAR is doomed to become a second-rate sport with limited commercial exposure.

The Fall of Brian France

Mayfield vs. NASCAR is a fight NASCAR wishes it never fought. First, let me provide a bit of background information. In 2008 NASCAR implemented a clandestine drug testing policy where they refused to provide competitors a list of banned substances. And in 2009, long time driver Jeremy Mayfield, was the first driver to face a suspension for use of a banned substance. The drug was later identified as Methamphetamine, or more commonly known as Meth. (See my blog post in the summer of 2009 for more information – NASCAR in Peril: Victory for Jeremy Mayfield in Drug Testing Legal Battle). What NASCAR didn’t anticipate was Mayfield fighting back and filing a lawsuit to reinstate his license to drive in NASCAR. Both sides have won important decisions, but the court fight continues. However, just recently this soap opera is becoming even juicier, the U.S. District Court has ruled in favor of Mayfield to require sensitive documents about Brian France’s third (or fourth but who’s counting) marriage to be unsealed. Many insiders believe evidence will come forward further tarnishing Brian France’s ability to continue to lead NASCAR into the next decade.

Sprint as the Title Sponsor of the Cup Series

The elephant in the room is the pending expiration of the sport’s lucrative sponsorship agreement with Sprint as title sponsor of the NASCAR Cup Series. Back in the summer of 2003, when Sprint (f/k/a NEXTEL) agreed to a 10 year agreement with NASCAR, no one expected the rapid decline of fan interest and corporate sponsorship within just a couple of years. Ironically, Sprint too has blood on their hands for the sponsorship troubles of racing teams, which contribute to the overall problems in the sport. Sprint pushed out and prevented several companies from sponsoring racing teams, including AT&T Wireless who was prepared to enter NASCAR in 2004 as a primary sponsor, but Sprint through their exclusivity agreement with NASCAR, prevented AT&T from entering the sport. And then, after AT&T Wireless merged with Cingular Wireless (who was grandfathered into sport through their existing sponsorship agreement with RCR), Sprint pushed AT&T Wireless out once again. This was basically the same story for Verizon Wireless and Alltel. But I digress, we are discussing the future, and following the expiration of the current agreement with Sprint there is little doubt NASCAR will be left without a title sponsor of the Cup Series. And with the falling value of the title sponsorship rights, I expect NASCAR to be forced to sell the rights for a deep discount. But like everything else in NASCAR, the teams will bear the brunt of the negative financial consequences.

New Television Contracts

Not unlike, the situation with Sprint as the title sponsor, agreements with the existing television partners expire in a couple of years. And, with the enhanced competition from the NFL, all signs point to a significantly lower value being attributed to the NASCAR contract. The reduction in the sport’s revenues will further hamper smaller NASCAR teams from competing and consequently continue the most alarming trends of decreased fan viewership, attendance and corporate sponsorship.

The Retirement of Today’s Superstars

It’s no secret that Jeff Gordon has been suffering from significant back pain stemming from an on track accident. So the question begs, when will one of the greatest and most popular drivers hang up his racing helmet? Could the dominance of Jimmie Johnson accelerate Jeff Gordon’s retirement? And more so, Jeff Gordon isn’t the only NASCAR star that could retire in the next decade from full-time racing. Is it possible, if Dale Earnhardt Jr.’s performance doesn’t dramatically improve that he might head towards an early retirement? These questions will surely plague NASCAR in the forthcoming decade and could have far reaching effects on the entire sport. Even though in the past several years neither Gordon nor Earnhardt have been top performers on the track, they still remain the top two fan and sponsor favorites. And during a time when NASCAR is desperately trying to stop the hemorrhage of fan and corporate interest, the retirement of one or both iconic names could be devastating.

My negativity is an attempt to bring forth positive change to NASCAR. It is horrifying to watch a sport I have watched most of my life be destroyed. But without question, NASCAR, under the leadership of Bill France Sr. and Bill France Jr. made many wise decisions which helped to elevate the sport to the peaks in 2004. Unfortunately, the management decisions of NASCAR in the last half of the past decade have grossly undermined the sport. Even though the previous generations of the France Family were successful shepherds of NASCAR, under the faltering management of Brian France – NASCAR has failed its competitors, fans and sponsors. If the France Family truly loves NASCAR – then they must consider selling NASCAR to a new ownership group, who is prepared to rebuild the sport before all remains is a storied past.

Let’s examine the recent history and evolution of NASCAR: during the global economic expansion following the tragic events of 2001 – 9/11 & the death of Dale Earnhardt Sr., NASCAR experienced unprecedented interest from corporate sponsors; and growth was fueled by new television contracts with Fox and NBC. Because of NASCAR’s unique business model, which is vastly different than other sports, the industry flourished from 2003 until recently, gathering new teams, with investors and manufacturers flocking to the industry.

As a point of reference, NASCAR is the ONLY major US sport without a franchise model including profit sharing agreements. NASCAR Teams operate in a free market where teams must survive without much financial assistance from NASCAR Corporate; and where new teams can easily compete if they have the financial backing. I was a personal beneficiary of this policy – and at 23 years of age secured an agreement to led Toyota Motorsports into the NASCAR Craftsman Truck Series and went on to build  their competitive platform for their NASCAR operation.

I am very fortunate to have realized my lifelong dream of owning and operating a top tier NASCAR team; and even more rewarding to have brought Toyota Motor Sales their first two NASCAR victories.

However, this so-called free market is a complete farce! The teams must secure over 90% of their operating budgets from corporate sponsors – a/k/a advertisers. What is more infuriating, and what is not common knowledge, is that NASCAR and its sister company ISC retain the vast majority of the sport’s healthy television contract revenues, and even compete against the teams  for corporate sponsors -  the  lifeblood of the race teams.  As many know, AT&T was forced to leave Richard Childress Racing (RCR) as a primary sponsor because NASCAR Corporate signed an agreement with Nextel (now Sprint) with an exclusivity provision precluding other wireless and telecommunication companies from sponsoring any racing team. So with teams on the verge of a depression – and with automotive manufactures and corporate sponsors reducing their involvement – NASCAR is busy lining their pockets at the expense of the teams.

The most fundamental precept is that without teams – there is no NASCAR; but somehow teams have failed to act on this most basic concept to leverage their position within the sport. Maybe in the past the very wealthy owners such as Rick Hendrick, Jack Roush and Roger Penske were complacent and satisfied with receiving a nominal share in the television revenues; but in today’s economic climate and the ultra competitive advertising marketplace – teams who want to keep standing on their feet, need to act now and demand a fairer share in revenues – not for personal profit; but simply to survive.

The management of NASCAR has a real opportunity to bring forth a “rescue plan” to save teams from closing their doors and fracturing the appeal of NASCAR; which could have irreversible effects on future television contracts and ultimately the profits of the France Family. The beauty of the NASCAR “dictatorship” is that they don’t need to hold a vote or seek the opinions of others; instead, they can just swiftly act to provide an increase in the teams’ alterative revenues, which would enable teams to offer sponsors a lower cost of entry to advertise in NASCAR.

You can’t expect any company to spend $20M to sponsor a NASCAR Team – the ROI isn’t remotely competitive. NASCAR needs to think long term and be willing to sacrifice some of their short term earnings for long term stability and growth in the NASCAR economy.

One of the most comical aspects to the event was listening to Darrel Waltrip, Mike Joy and Larry McReynolds pretend that the event was SO exciting and we all should be more excited about the COT in NASCAR. Are you kidding? They must have been watching the 1987 All-Star Race (Winston) rather than the live event.

Furthermore, Kasey Kahne won the race while not even qualifying to participate based upon his on-track performance; his inclusion in the event was picked via an American Idol style vote. While, I know Kasey personally and think he is a great guy and well deserving to participate in the NASCAR Sprint All-Star Race, the purest in me feels somewhat robbed by compromising the all-star event in an attempt to attract a larger audience.

In any case, rules, COT, and/or track – the days of the hard charging driver willing to make the “pass in the grass” ended with the untimely death of the legendary Dale Earnhardt Sr. Perhaps, Helio Castroneves in the Indy 500 will feed our need for on-track fireworks.

But fast forward to 2008 and so called “super teams” – Yates Racing, Chip Ganassi Racing, Bill Davis Racing and Dale Earnhardt Inc. all have primary sponsor vacancies and may shutter one or more of their teams. Some may ask “How did this happen?” You will hear many say the principle cause is the rising costs of drivers, personnel and other expenses. And YES, while these are all contributing factors; the fundamental flaw of a NASCAR sponsorship program is the inability to measure the performance and success of the program. While NASCAR has always positioned itself as a branding vehicle; in 2008 branding is only achieved through customer acquisition; and NASCAR sponsorship does not provide an effective means to measure its performance.

With the rapid growth of online advertising opportunities and pay-for-performance models, why would one invest a large portion of their marketing budget into a non-quantifiable advertising campaign? If motorsports’ agencies and teams cannot provide an answer to this daunting question – NASCAR fans will be more disappointed as more and more teams become sponsorless and face the inevitable loss of their favorite teams.

When a potential corporate sponsor investigates a NASCAR sponsorship opportunity, the chief value proposition that is touted – is the high brand loyalty that sponsors’ receive. This approach is not only out-dated but the  value proposition is severely overrated.  As many know, I grew up as a die-hard Dale Earnhardt Sr. fan and subsequently, in recent years have cheered for Dale Jr. But do I drink AMP, Mountain Dew or any other Pepsi product? Ah No. Do I drive a Chevrolet? No. Clearly, brand loyalty is not enough to justify $20 Million dollars to sponsor a Sprint Cup team.

NASCAR teams, unlike Formula 1, completely rely on advertising revenue to fund their operations – and the option of reducing operating expenses is just not realistic. Consequently, unless NASCAR decides to “share the wealth” and allocate a larger percentage of television revenue to their racing teams, those teams MUST reinvent their marketing approach to survive.  But it’s not doomsday for everyone in the sport – Hendrick Motorsports, Joe Gibbs Racing and Roush Fenway Racing are on top of the racing world – with world-class drivers and premiere equipment – to drive their considerable sponsorship demand. But where does that leave, lesser know drivers and less significant teams, and perhaps even future teams?

As the youngest NASCAR team owner in history and with the best track record for any first year team, I scored Toyota’s first two NASCAR victories and know what it takes to perform on the race track and in the corporate board room. I personally pioneered the development of online loyalty and incentive programs in NASCAR and leveraged internet marketing strategies to secure companies such as, eBay to sponsor Bang! Racing. But without an integrated approach whereby teams can leverage the NASCAR brand, innovative business models will not prosper and teams will continue to fail at an alarming pace.

I implore NASCAR, its team owners and motorsports agencies to collaborate to develop and implement a better approach and solution before the majority of teams become bankrupt and are forced to be remembered as simply “defunct.”

By: Alex Meshkin, former owner of Bang Racing

Rarely has a NASCAR entrance generated as much buzz as Toyota’s announcement that it would enter its Tundra model in the Craftsman Truck Series this season.

Mike Skinner, who”ll drive a Tundra, says the engine needs work, but “I’d be very surprised if it weren’t competitive within four or five months.”

The din has only slightly abated as some fans appear willing to welcome the Japanese carmaker to the heretofore-American sport. But keepers of the flame fear another Yankee stronghold is slipping away to a foreign interloper. Just recently, Nextel Cup and sometime Craftsman driver Jimmy Spencer broke off a xenophobic rant that NASCAR declined to discipline.

But Spencer’s comments seemed to express the sentiment of some, whom at the very least wonder if this is Toyota’s first step on the way to Nextel Cup. The company, which builds the trucks in Tennessee and Indiana, won’t comment.

Time will tell whether it comes true. For now Toyota will settle for being able to hang with American brands Ford, Dodge and Chevy.

Preseason testing revealed a horsepower deficit and other issues, but most expect the dependable Tundra to close the gap by season’s end, setting the stage for more suspense in NASCAR’s most competitive series.

“It’s stable,” said 1995 series champion Mike Skinner, who will team with reigning champion Travis Kvapil as part of Toyota’s four-team, seven-truck contingent. “We’re behind the gun a little bit, but I think we’re off to a great start. They’ve just got to make the engine better. I’d be very surprised if it weren’t competitive within four or five months.”

If signing Kvapil was intended to help give Toyota track credibility, adding irascible Darrell Waltrip and Larry McReynolds provides experience as well as comic relief. Waltrip, the three-time Cup champion, and McReynolds, the late Dale Earnhardt’s longtime crew chief, are best known for their repartee as Fox TV analysts.

They will be respectively known as team owner and management. Waltrip will drive in three Craftsman races this season but will mostly oversee David Reutimann’s progress in Darrell Waltrip Racing’s No. 17 Tundra.

McReynolds will supervise Kvapil and Skinner as Bang! Racing’s vice president, a prospect he didn’t consider until examining Toyota’s business plan last year. That erased his reservations, but he quickly discovered that not everybody was so open-minded.

“It’s disappointing to me, this old-school thinking,” McReynolds said. “I’ve been called a traitor and a lot of other things I can’t repeat. But I’d bet that those who are against Toyota coming into NASCAR probably have Mitsubishi and Sony TVs and a lot of other foreign things in their homes.

“If you had come to me five years ago and told me Toyota would be in NASCAR. … I’m more enlightened now. It’s very American-oriented.”

In addition to Bang! and Waltrip, Bill Davis Racing will field a two-truck effort with Bill Lester and Shelby Howard. Innovative Motorsports will enter Robert Huffman and Hank Parker Jr.

Toyota will be the primary sponsor for Kvapil, Huffman and Lester.

If Kvapil thought it was tough rallying from third to win the closest-ever points race last season, consider what he’ll face as the man to beat. There’s the matter of Ted Musgrave, who finished 18 points back in third after officials black-flagged his final-restart pass for the lead at the Homestead finale. He immediately vowed to be more, er, daring, this season.

As if that isn’t enough to deal with, there’s runner-up Dennis Setzer (nine points back), fifth-place Jon Wood and seventh-place Rick Crawford, whose three-wide victory at Daytona last year set the tone for the season. Former Cup regular Steve Park joins Orleand Racing, and 2002 truck champion Jack Sprague is racing for Xpress Motorsports.

That makes the points race too hard for even drivers to handicap.

“With Toyota in, it has to be stronger,” Crawford said. “It has stepped everybody up to the plate. Toyota didn’t come into NASCAR just to play around and be a number in the finishing order; they’re coming in to win. Look at what they’ve done in other forms of racing. I’m sure they’ll make the same impact in NASCAR.”

That confidence sustains Kvapil as he gets used to a new truck and his third team in as many seasons. Last season’s jump from third to series champion in the finale taught him that things somehow fall into place, minimizing his initial concerns about Toyota. He also believes Toyota eventually will silence debate over its place, which might be the biggest victory.

“We’ve blown a few engines in testing, but that was to be expected,” said Kvapil, who set a series record by completing all but one half-mile lap last season. “Toyota is building engines to be there at the end. They’re fine-tuning some things, so there are definitely some question marks. But we’ll be there.”

Also competing are Tina Gordon, the series’ only full-time female driver, and Kelly Sutton. Gordon will drive the No. 13 Chevy, while rookie Sutton, a former Dash series driver, will guide the No. 02 Chevy.

http://www.usatoday.com/sports/motor/nascar/2004-02-12-bonus-toyota_x.htm