It is not possible to predict the road NASCAR will travel by the time we reach the final 2019 checkered flag, but it will be entertaining to speculate.

This decade begins as NASCAR tail spins in the wrong direction it’s a sharp contrast to the beginning of the last decade when NASCAR viewership, attendance and corporate interest were all surging. Today, all of those trends are in reverse, and this decade will truly define whether NASCAR remains as a mainstream sport or becomes another fledgling motorsport series.

I believe the major stories and events that will affect NASCAR in the coming years will have little or nothing to do with on track racing. So let me begin with a few predictions before we take our first green flag of 2010.

The Car of Tomorrow (COT)

By any account other than driver safety, the COT has been a miserable failure, and many point to the introduction of the COT as a defining moment in the accelerated decrease in fan interest. Since making its debut, the COT has been one of the most controversial rule changes to be introduced in NASCAR. There is no question that NASCAR will eventually make changes to their ill advised COT design, but the question is how dramatic and rapid will changes be introduced. I believe this decision will define the sport in the coming decade, because unless on-track racing significantly improves, NASCAR is doomed to become a second-rate sport with limited commercial exposure.

The Fall of Brian France

Mayfield vs. NASCAR is a fight NASCAR wishes it never fought. First, let me provide a bit of background information. In 2008 NASCAR implemented a clandestine drug testing policy where they refused to provide competitors a list of banned substances. And in 2009, long time driver Jeremy Mayfield, was the first driver to face a suspension for use of a banned substance. The drug was later identified as Methamphetamine, or more commonly known as Meth. (See my blog post in the summer of 2009 for more information – NASCAR in Peril: Victory for Jeremy Mayfield in Drug Testing Legal Battle). What NASCAR didn’t anticipate was Mayfield fighting back and filing a lawsuit to reinstate his license to drive in NASCAR. Both sides have won important decisions, but the court fight continues. However, just recently this soap opera is becoming even juicier, the U.S. District Court has ruled in favor of Mayfield to require sensitive documents about Brian France’s third (or fourth but who’s counting) marriage to be unsealed. Many insiders believe evidence will come forward further tarnishing Brian France’s ability to continue to lead NASCAR into the next decade.

Sprint as the Title Sponsor of the Cup Series

The elephant in the room is the pending expiration of the sport’s lucrative sponsorship agreement with Sprint as title sponsor of the NASCAR Cup Series. Back in the summer of 2003, when Sprint (f/k/a NEXTEL) agreed to a 10 year agreement with NASCAR, no one expected the rapid decline of fan interest and corporate sponsorship within just a couple of years. Ironically, Sprint too has blood on their hands for the sponsorship troubles of racing teams, which contribute to the overall problems in the sport. Sprint pushed out and prevented several companies from sponsoring racing teams, including AT&T Wireless who was prepared to enter NASCAR in 2004 as a primary sponsor, but Sprint through their exclusivity agreement with NASCAR, prevented AT&T from entering the sport. And then, after AT&T Wireless merged with Cingular Wireless (who was grandfathered into sport through their existing sponsorship agreement with RCR), Sprint pushed AT&T Wireless out once again. This was basically the same story for Verizon Wireless and Alltel. But I digress, we are discussing the future, and following the expiration of the current agreement with Sprint there is little doubt NASCAR will be left without a title sponsor of the Cup Series. And with the falling value of the title sponsorship rights, I expect NASCAR to be forced to sell the rights for a deep discount. But like everything else in NASCAR, the teams will bear the brunt of the negative financial consequences.

New Television Contracts

Not unlike, the situation with Sprint as the title sponsor, agreements with the existing television partners expire in a couple of years. And, with the enhanced competition from the NFL, all signs point to a significantly lower value being attributed to the NASCAR contract. The reduction in the sport’s revenues will further hamper smaller NASCAR teams from competing and consequently continue the most alarming trends of decreased fan viewership, attendance and corporate sponsorship.

The Retirement of Today’s Superstars

It’s no secret that Jeff Gordon has been suffering from significant back pain stemming from an on track accident. So the question begs, when will one of the greatest and most popular drivers hang up his racing helmet? Could the dominance of Jimmie Johnson accelerate Jeff Gordon’s retirement? And more so, Jeff Gordon isn’t the only NASCAR star that could retire in the next decade from full-time racing. Is it possible, if Dale Earnhardt Jr.’s performance doesn’t dramatically improve that he might head towards an early retirement? These questions will surely plague NASCAR in the forthcoming decade and could have far reaching effects on the entire sport. Even though in the past several years neither Gordon nor Earnhardt have been top performers on the track, they still remain the top two fan and sponsor favorites. And during a time when NASCAR is desperately trying to stop the hemorrhage of fan and corporate interest, the retirement of one or both iconic names could be devastating.

My negativity is an attempt to bring forth positive change to NASCAR. It is horrifying to watch a sport I have watched most of my life be destroyed. But without question, NASCAR, under the leadership of Bill France Sr. and Bill France Jr. made many wise decisions which helped to elevate the sport to the peaks in 2004. Unfortunately, the management decisions of NASCAR in the last half of the past decade have grossly undermined the sport. Even though the previous generations of the France Family were successful shepherds of NASCAR, under the faltering management of Brian France – NASCAR has failed its competitors, fans and sponsors. If the France Family truly loves NASCAR – then they must consider selling NASCAR to a new ownership group, who is prepared to rebuild the sport before all remains is a storied past.

Frustrated over the lackluster excitement of the 2008 NASCAR Sprint Cup Series – I feel I am not alone. The racing was bland, personalities were muffled and there was not a compelling reason to watch most races. I tend to be a traditionalist in my view of the sport and the championship points system – but times have changed; and subsequently, their needs to be a dramatic adjustment to ignite fan interest.

We all agree that NASCAR has a lot of problems. Simply but, this may be an example of the “chicken or the egg” syndrome. The fundamental metric which must improve is fan viewership. While this is not the end all solution – it would significantly improve teams’ ability to attract more corporate sponsors. At the same time, increasing fan viewership alone will not fix the sponsorship depression and teams’ ability to finance their operations. NASCAR needs resurgence – and if fan viewership is a MUST to reverse the current trend to drive more sponsor interest – then HOW do they make it happen?

Unlike any other major American sport – NASCAR rewards consistency over victory. So basically, under the current points system – you could finish second in every race and pretty much be guaranteed the Championship in the Sprint Cup Series. I don’t know about you but I have never celebrated my favorite driver’s runner-up finish. The famous philosopher Ricky Bobby once said, “If you ain’t first, you’re last”. Or, as legendary driver Dale Earnhardt put it, “Second place is just the first loser”. It’s time for NASCAR to incentivize and reward winning! Fans celebrate winning drivers and sponsors reward winning teams – the Championship and monetary system needs to reward “winning” and not “staying out of trouble”.

I’m curious – is there anyone else out there wondering why a driver can win the Sprint Cup Championship without a single race victory? It doesn’t make sense to me! And furthermore 4 of the 12 that qualified for the 2008 Chase for the Cup didn’t even win in the regular season. Sorry guys, while I have the greatest respect for Jeff Gordon and Kevin Harvick – honestly, you didn’t win in the regular season (or the Chase for that matter) – so you shouldn’t have the opportunity to be the Sprint Cup Champion.

So here are the basics of my proposal to increase on-track excitement and create more fan interest:

• You must win a race during the regular season to be a part of the Chase for the Cup and the Chase should be limited to a maximum of 10 drivers.

• The Chase Contenders should have a completely different points system which makes the championship more competitive and puts an emphasis on race victories.

• Redistribute the championship fund year-end bonuses to individual race victories. For example, if you were to take $20M from the year-end points fund and add $550K to each race victory – that would increase the average race winnings for 1st place to about $1 million per race. This would encourage drivers to take risks and forgo their “points racing” mindset which is ruining the sport.

NASCAR’s failure to act and evolve – if continued down this slippery slope – will result in further sponsor deflections, which could cause an irreversible contraction in all aspects of the sport we all love.

Most will agree that the current economic recession will have a significant financial impact on NASCAR teams and the sport as a whole – but does it really need to be this way? In 2009, there will be significantly less Sprint Cup teams competing on a weekly basis – and yet, in economic downturns other sports such as the NFL or NBA do not have reductions in teams. Why is this so?  The answer is rather simple – other sports operate as a democracy with all teams participating in the economic benefits of the television contracts; while NASCAR on the other hand, is structured much closer to a dictatorship – with the profits being retained by NASCAR Corporate which is owned solely by the France Family.

Let’s examine the recent history and evolution of NASCAR: during the global economic expansion following the tragic events of 2001 – 9/11 & the death of Dale Earnhardt Sr., NASCAR experienced unprecedented interest from corporate sponsors; and growth was fueled by new television contracts with Fox and NBC. Because of NASCAR’s unique business model, which is vastly different than other sports, the industry flourished from 2003 until recently, gathering new teams, with investors and manufacturers flocking to the industry.

As a point of reference, NASCAR is the ONLY major US sport without a franchise model including profit sharing agreements. NASCAR Teams operate in a free market where teams must survive without much financial assistance from NASCAR Corporate; and where new teams can easily compete if they have the financial backing. I was a personal beneficiary of this policy – and at 23 years of age secured an agreement to led Toyota Motorsports into the NASCAR Craftsman Truck Series and went on to build  their competitive platform for their NASCAR operation.

I am very fortunate to have realized my lifelong dream of owning and operating a top tier NASCAR team; and even more rewarding to have brought Toyota Motor Sales their first two NASCAR victories.

However, this so-called free market is a complete farce! The teams must secure over 90% of their operating budgets from corporate sponsors – a/k/a advertisers. What is more infuriating, and what is not common knowledge, is that NASCAR and its sister company ISC retain the vast majority of the sport’s healthy television contract revenues, and even compete against the teams  for corporate sponsors -  the  lifeblood of the race teams.  As many know, AT&T was forced to leave Richard Childress Racing (RCR) as a primary sponsor because NASCAR Corporate signed an agreement with Nextel (now Sprint) with an exclusivity provision precluding other wireless and telecommunication companies from sponsoring any racing team. So with teams on the verge of a depression – and with automotive manufactures and corporate sponsors reducing their involvement – NASCAR is busy lining their pockets at the expense of the teams.

The most fundamental precept is that without teams – there is no NASCAR; but somehow teams have failed to act on this most basic concept to leverage their position within the sport. Maybe in the past the very wealthy owners such as Rick Hendrick, Jack Roush and Roger Penske were complacent and satisfied with receiving a nominal share in the television revenues; but in today’s economic climate and the ultra competitive advertising marketplace – teams who want to keep standing on their feet, need to act now and demand a fairer share in revenues – not for personal profit; but simply to survive.

The management of NASCAR has a real opportunity to bring forth a “rescue plan” to save teams from closing their doors and fracturing the appeal of NASCAR; which could have irreversible effects on future television contracts and ultimately the profits of the France Family. The beauty of the NASCAR “dictatorship” is that they don’t need to hold a vote or seek the opinions of others; instead, they can just swiftly act to provide an increase in the teams’ alterative revenues, which would enable teams to offer sponsors a lower cost of entry to advertise in NASCAR.

You can’t expect any company to spend $20M to sponsor a NASCAR Team – the ROI isn’t remotely competitive. NASCAR needs to think long term and be willing to sacrifice some of their short term earnings for long term stability and growth in the NASCAR economy.

Two brands and two industries synonymous with NASCAR – Coors Light (Coors Brewing) and Texaco Havoline (Chevron) have in subsequent years cut ties with Chip Ganassi Racing and ultimately vacated NASCAR team sponsorship. The association and sponsorship of these two industries – Beer and Gasoline/Oil companies with NASCAR have by far the greatest value proposition; and yet they are leaving NASCAR? What is going on here? Even for someone like me who has been writing about the difficult NASCAR sponsorship market is surprised and concerned with Texaco pulling the plug on its storied NASCAR sponsorship program.

What is the root cause of these two prominent and long-term sponsors leaving NASCAR? The answer is simple: there are too many compelling alternatives which have a greater ROI and offer far less risk. Let’s be honest, primary sponsors are asked to commit up to $25 Million to purchase “so called advertising” without any meaningful guaranties of consumer advertising impressions. Sounds rather ominous, right?

Of course, sponsoring Dale Earnhardt Jr. and any of the other top performing drivers offers a unique value proposition: residue value through their brand loyal fans, merchandise and alike. But the vast majority of sponsors are receiving a diminishing ROI by virtue of the rising costs of NASCAR sponsorship and decreased television viewership and race attendance. Since 2004, the cost of becoming a primary sponsor of a top performing Sprint Cup team has soared by over 60% while television ratings have dropped by about 10%. The dichotomy of rising sponsorship costs and decreased television exposure is a disturbing trend which is primarily affecting the worst performing teams but could soon start to challenge the most elite NASCAR teams. The change in corporate sponsors’ attitudes towards NASCAR sponsorship shouldn’t surprise anyone.

However, NASCAR and its Teams have either refused or do not understand how to evolve in the digital age where advertisers can purchase measureable and interactive advertising with far less risk and much greater ROI. Unlike, most “traditional” businesses that reinvent themselves and innovate; NASCAR has failed to bring forth any meaningful innovations that can directly increase sponsors’ exposure and ROI.

Chip Ganassi Racing has had and continues to be one of the best performing open-wheel racing teams; and clearly delivers on and off the track performance for Target in the IndyCar Series. But unfortunately, Chip Ganassi’s foray into NASCAR has been a bitter disappointment. In 2006, Chip Ganassi secured Juan Pablo Montoya to pilot the #42 Texaco Dodge in the Sprint Cup series and hoped the media attention of the former IndyCar and Indy 500 Champion would ignite the performance and success of his NASCAR team. But excluding a few promising races (mostly on road courses) Montoya’s NASCAR career has underperformed. It appears Chip Ganassi Racing may be another victim of the sponsorship race; and soon join NASCAR’s elite defunct team list.

Has anyone noticed the decreased television advertising from Anheuser-Bush, Miller and Coors during NASCAR Sprint Cup race telecasts? Following the split of Dale Earnhardt Jr., Budweiser and Dale Earnhardt Inc.; Anheuser-Bush has apparently rapidly diminished their dominate presence over our weekly telecasts. In my opinion, this is the procuring cause to Miller and Coors’ also reducing their media placements during NASCAR broadcasts. While I don’t have the numbers to backup my observations, nonetheless, I think the anecdotal evidence is enough to question the “Dale Jr” effect on the return-on-investment (ROI) of the NASCAR television contract for Fox, NBC, TNT and ABC/ESPN.

So I question, is their enough of a demand to offset the loss of beer ads? If so, I certainly would be surprised if that demand will withstand the current economic pressure. But for sure, no one expected the self-interested actions of Teresa Earnhardt to have such a negative impact and affect so many other parts of the NASCAR food chain. It seems apparent that you can add the broadcasters to the list of people and companies that are keeping their distance from Teresa Earnhardt.

NASCAR officials have notified team owners in the Nationwide Series that they will delay the introduction of the Car of Tomorrow (COT) in the Nationwide Series by at least one year. According to Ramsey Poston, Managing Director of Communications at NASCAR, the reason for the change is because “testing and development” is still needed before the car is approved for competition.

While that does sound very nice and tidy, the real reason is far more ominous – and the decision was based upon the economic impact on the independent teams in the Nationwide Series. The introduction of the COT would require teams to replace their entire fleet of race cars and it would be financially inconceivable and ultimately would devastate the Nationwide Series in 2009.

Back in May, I wrote an article Car of Tomorrow (COT) – Friend or Foe for the Nationwide Series; where I foretold of the impending disaster of the COT for the Nationwide Series and quoted Dale Earnhardt Jr. about his race team’s future plans and the viability of the Nationwide Series with the COT:

And they’re going to bring a COT in and we won’t be able to race in the Nationwide Series with the COT probably. That’ll just be too expensive to switch all that over. …And the COT program is going to be too expensive for me to justify creating a whole new program with COT stuff, so I’d just as soon go into the Cup Series or get out of the Nationwide Series altogether.

An official announcement is expected from NASCAR in two weeks.

Dale Jr. had a victorious day in the LifeLock 400 at Michigan International Speedway – and ended an endless streak of 76 races. A win could not have come on a better day – Father’s Day. Earnhardt’s much anticipated first win of 2008 was achieved through a brilliant combination of strategy from cousin and crew chief Tony Eury Jr. and smooth driving by Jr. Ironically, Dale Jr. entered today’s race with a winless streak matching his father’s career number of victories – 76. There are numerous ironies. And yet, one can only imagine the thoughts Dale Jr. must have had as he made his way across the finish line– was Dad once again sitting beside him. I am sure there are two happy Dale Earnhardt’s today.

Congratulations to Dale Earnhardt Jr., the Earnhardt Family and Hendrick Motorsports.

What is the COT? The Format? The Track? It doesn’t really matter because at the end of the day, the 2008 NASCAR All-Star Race was utterly boring. Honestly, I was shocked, because the All-Star race is normally one of the highlights to the long NASCAR racing season. The format traditionally included variables and rules promoting side-by-side “Saturday Night” style short track racing, but on a one and half mile tri-oval which provided fans every bit of their money’s worth of excitement. But in 2008, format was tweaked and with COT – it was like watching paint dry.

One of the most comical aspects to the event was listening to Darrel Waltrip, Mike Joy and Larry McReynolds pretend that the event was SO exciting and we all should be more excited about the COT in NASCAR. Are you kidding? They must have been watching the 1987 All-Star Race (Winston) rather than the live event.

Furthermore, Kasey Kahne won the race while not even qualifying to participate based upon his on-track performance; his inclusion in the event was picked via an American Idol style vote. While, I know Kasey personally and think he is a great guy and well deserving to participate in the NASCAR Sprint All-Star Race, the purest in me feels somewhat robbed by compromising the all-star event in an attempt to attract a larger audience.

In any case, rules, COT, and/or track – the days of the hard charging driver willing to make the “pass in the grass” ended with the untimely death of the legendary Dale Earnhardt Sr. Perhaps, Helio Castroneves in the Indy 500 will feed our need for on-track fireworks.

Earlier this week, Dale Earnhardt Jr. provided a candid team owner’s perspective of the forthcoming change to the Car of Tomorrow (COT) in the NASCAR Nationwide Series. When asked about his future Sprint Cup plans with JR Motorsports, he said:

“I used to say no way, no way. But it’s almost as expensive to run in the Nationwide Series. And they’re going to bring a COT in and we won’t be able to race in the Nationwide Series with the COT probably. That’ll just be too expensive to switch all that over.”

“…And the COT program is going to be too expensive for me to justify creating a whole new program with COT stuff, so I’d just as soon go into the Cup Series or get out of the Nationwide Series altogether.”

Dale Jr.’s statements raise an alarming concern on the viability of the Nationwide Series. Let’s be honest – if the Nationwide Series business model doesn’t work for JR/Hendrick Motorsports – why then, would anyone think it would work for someone else? I have a hard time envisioning any other team being able to justify the capital expenditure required to compete in the NASCAR Nationwide Series with the COT. The pending arrival of the COT to the Nationwide Series couldn’t be at a worst economic time. Even teams such as Richard Childress Racing (RCR) are struggling to find new sponsors; and in retrospect, recently announced that the former Championship #21 team would be reducing its schedule in 2008 for the Nationwide Series due to a lack of sponsorship.

It’s undisputed that the COT provides enhanced safety for the drivers – which are undeniably priceless. However, compensation for improved safety should be at the forefront of NASCAR’s economic model and NASCAR should provide assistance for the teams’ through financial allowances to ensure that drivers and crew members are safe; while at the same time, enabling team owners’ to survive. It’s unfortunate that team owners must bear 100% of the financial burden of safety while NASCAR corporate continues to retain the vast majority of revenues and profits – continuing to drain many of the teams’ livelihoods – and perhaps even to the sport’s future longevity.

If I was still an owner of my NASCAR team (Bang! Racing), I would organize the Nationwide Series Team Owners to take a stand and demand financial assistance from NASCAR to adopt the COT in 2009. If Dale Jr. can’t afford to- who in the world can?