It is not possible to predict the road NASCAR will travel by the time we reach the final 2019 checkered flag, but it will be entertaining to speculate.

This decade begins as NASCAR tail spins in the wrong direction it’s a sharp contrast to the beginning of the last decade when NASCAR viewership, attendance and corporate interest were all surging. Today, all of those trends are in reverse, and this decade will truly define whether NASCAR remains as a mainstream sport or becomes another fledgling motorsport series.

I believe the major stories and events that will affect NASCAR in the coming years will have little or nothing to do with on track racing. So let me begin with a few predictions before we take our first green flag of 2010.

The Car of Tomorrow (COT)

By any account other than driver safety, the COT has been a miserable failure, and many point to the introduction of the COT as a defining moment in the accelerated decrease in fan interest. Since making its debut, the COT has been one of the most controversial rule changes to be introduced in NASCAR. There is no question that NASCAR will eventually make changes to their ill advised COT design, but the question is how dramatic and rapid will changes be introduced. I believe this decision will define the sport in the coming decade, because unless on-track racing significantly improves, NASCAR is doomed to become a second-rate sport with limited commercial exposure.

The Fall of Brian France

Mayfield vs. NASCAR is a fight NASCAR wishes it never fought. First, let me provide a bit of background information. In 2008 NASCAR implemented a clandestine drug testing policy where they refused to provide competitors a list of banned substances. And in 2009, long time driver Jeremy Mayfield, was the first driver to face a suspension for use of a banned substance. The drug was later identified as Methamphetamine, or more commonly known as Meth. (See my blog post in the summer of 2009 for more information – NASCAR in Peril: Victory for Jeremy Mayfield in Drug Testing Legal Battle). What NASCAR didn’t anticipate was Mayfield fighting back and filing a lawsuit to reinstate his license to drive in NASCAR. Both sides have won important decisions, but the court fight continues. However, just recently this soap opera is becoming even juicier, the U.S. District Court has ruled in favor of Mayfield to require sensitive documents about Brian France’s third (or fourth but who’s counting) marriage to be unsealed. Many insiders believe evidence will come forward further tarnishing Brian France’s ability to continue to lead NASCAR into the next decade.

Sprint as the Title Sponsor of the Cup Series

The elephant in the room is the pending expiration of the sport’s lucrative sponsorship agreement with Sprint as title sponsor of the NASCAR Cup Series. Back in the summer of 2003, when Sprint (f/k/a NEXTEL) agreed to a 10 year agreement with NASCAR, no one expected the rapid decline of fan interest and corporate sponsorship within just a couple of years. Ironically, Sprint too has blood on their hands for the sponsorship troubles of racing teams, which contribute to the overall problems in the sport. Sprint pushed out and prevented several companies from sponsoring racing teams, including AT&T Wireless who was prepared to enter NASCAR in 2004 as a primary sponsor, but Sprint through their exclusivity agreement with NASCAR, prevented AT&T from entering the sport. And then, after AT&T Wireless merged with Cingular Wireless (who was grandfathered into sport through their existing sponsorship agreement with RCR), Sprint pushed AT&T Wireless out once again. This was basically the same story for Verizon Wireless and Alltel. But I digress, we are discussing the future, and following the expiration of the current agreement with Sprint there is little doubt NASCAR will be left without a title sponsor of the Cup Series. And with the falling value of the title sponsorship rights, I expect NASCAR to be forced to sell the rights for a deep discount. But like everything else in NASCAR, the teams will bear the brunt of the negative financial consequences.

New Television Contracts

Not unlike, the situation with Sprint as the title sponsor, agreements with the existing television partners expire in a couple of years. And, with the enhanced competition from the NFL, all signs point to a significantly lower value being attributed to the NASCAR contract. The reduction in the sport’s revenues will further hamper smaller NASCAR teams from competing and consequently continue the most alarming trends of decreased fan viewership, attendance and corporate sponsorship.

The Retirement of Today’s Superstars

It’s no secret that Jeff Gordon has been suffering from significant back pain stemming from an on track accident. So the question begs, when will one of the greatest and most popular drivers hang up his racing helmet? Could the dominance of Jimmie Johnson accelerate Jeff Gordon’s retirement? And more so, Jeff Gordon isn’t the only NASCAR star that could retire in the next decade from full-time racing. Is it possible, if Dale Earnhardt Jr.’s performance doesn’t dramatically improve that he might head towards an early retirement? These questions will surely plague NASCAR in the forthcoming decade and could have far reaching effects on the entire sport. Even though in the past several years neither Gordon nor Earnhardt have been top performers on the track, they still remain the top two fan and sponsor favorites. And during a time when NASCAR is desperately trying to stop the hemorrhage of fan and corporate interest, the retirement of one or both iconic names could be devastating.

My negativity is an attempt to bring forth positive change to NASCAR. It is horrifying to watch a sport I have watched most of my life be destroyed. But without question, NASCAR, under the leadership of Bill France Sr. and Bill France Jr. made many wise decisions which helped to elevate the sport to the peaks in 2004. Unfortunately, the management decisions of NASCAR in the last half of the past decade have grossly undermined the sport. Even though the previous generations of the France Family were successful shepherds of NASCAR, under the faltering management of Brian France – NASCAR has failed its competitors, fans and sponsors. If the France Family truly loves NASCAR – then they must consider selling NASCAR to a new ownership group, who is prepared to rebuild the sport before all remains is a storied past.

Sources are telling me that instead of focusing on reinventing themselves, NASCAR is anticipating a future without automotive sponsors. Is this an omission from NASCAR that they lack a value proposition? Regardless of the poor economy or slump in automotive sales – if NASCAR sponsorship has a positive ROI, automakers would not be consider jumping ship. The reality is simply the ROI for the automakers are far below most other mediums and NASCAR may finally be getting the message. But unfortunately, it may be too late for NASCAR to adjust and to keep the financial support of the Big 3 and Toyota, but surely it’s worth a more concerted effort to evolve their business model and objectives to try and retain the majority of their automotive partners.

NASCAR today must be more than just a marketing platform. It needs to become a technical platform and support R&D objectives for the automakers. Evaluating NASCAR in the most cynical viewpoint, one could argue that the archaic technology, i.e. the use of carburetors, instead of fuel injection, is continuing the public persona that the Big 3’s product portfolio is less than innovative. It’s time for NASCAR’s leadership to make the necessary changes in the best interests of their lifeblood – their teams and automakers.

I want to enforce my statements in my post on July 21st:

NASCAR has a real opportunity for leadership – and can provide automotive manufacturers a real marketing platform that demonstrates alternative energy as performance cars – that are viable, affordable and energy efficient – and return NASCAR to its roots as “stock car” racing at its best.

NASCAR is standing at the crossroads, where the wrong decision could be the final nail in the coffin. Their choice may be a future of IROC style racing or one of a balance of innovative technology with the proper cost controls in place to secure the long term stability of all stakeholders. Unfortunately, if NASCAR becomes the next IROC, I am afraid their future will most likely be rather bleak.

On Sunday Morning, Bruton Smith conducted an interview with ESPN. After questioned about the challenging times that is facing NASCAR; Smith reaffirmed his desire to acquire NASCAR and said, “And it’s getting closer”, referring to the possibility of the France Family looking to sell NASCAR. Is Smith just stirring the pot? Or perhaps, is the France Family finally considering ending their strangle-hold on the sport?

Hypothetically, let us assume Smith’s statements are backed by an element of fact and that the France Family is looking to sell NASCAR. It is my opinion that a change in ownership from the France Family to Smith would not bring about the change needed to put NASCAR back on the track for growth. As discussed in my most recent blog entry, The Failing NASCAR Economy: A Time for Action! - NASCAR must act to bring forth changes to support its lifeblood – the race teams. A Smith regime would only continue the same old policies of providing the race tracks a disproportionate share of the television revenues as compared to the racing teams. These policies need to change – NASCAR Sprint Cup Teams must receive a greater portion of the television revenues earned by the sport – because without Teams there is no NASCAR. Yes, tracks are valuable, but as Formula 1 has proven, track owners and promoters are willing to host events without large subsidies from the governing body.

The best avenue to save our sport and put it back on track, allowing it to grow into the next decade, is for an entrepreneurial executive; who understands the sport, new media and the market trends to lead a leveraged buyout – partially funded by a team franchise model – where 43 Sprint Cup Teams would receive a minority ownership and participate in profit sharing to ensure the stability of the premiere NASCAR series – the Sprint Cup.

The impending fluctuations expected in the number of competitors in the second most watched sport in country – the Sprint Cup Series, is completely unacceptable. A new ownership structure must include policies and an agreement to secure the future of the Sprint Cup Series by enabling Team Owners to purchase Franchises and receive votes in the future of the sport that they have all built. This new structure would eliminate the sanctioning body from competing with teams for sponsors and create a more healthy sport to ensure its long term future.

2008 has been the year of “change” – Americans want “change”, NASCAR Fans want “change”, NASCAR Teams want “change”. If the France Family provides the opportunity for “change” in the leadership of NASCAR – let us all hope that it is the “right change” that comes to Daytona Beach.

Most will agree that the current economic recession will have a significant financial impact on NASCAR teams and the sport as a whole – but does it really need to be this way? In 2009, there will be significantly less Sprint Cup teams competing on a weekly basis – and yet, in economic downturns other sports such as the NFL or NBA do not have reductions in teams. Why is this so?  The answer is rather simple – other sports operate as a democracy with all teams participating in the economic benefits of the television contracts; while NASCAR on the other hand, is structured much closer to a dictatorship – with the profits being retained by NASCAR Corporate which is owned solely by the France Family.

Let’s examine the recent history and evolution of NASCAR: during the global economic expansion following the tragic events of 2001 – 9/11 & the death of Dale Earnhardt Sr., NASCAR experienced unprecedented interest from corporate sponsors; and growth was fueled by new television contracts with Fox and NBC. Because of NASCAR’s unique business model, which is vastly different than other sports, the industry flourished from 2003 until recently, gathering new teams, with investors and manufacturers flocking to the industry.

As a point of reference, NASCAR is the ONLY major US sport without a franchise model including profit sharing agreements. NASCAR Teams operate in a free market where teams must survive without much financial assistance from NASCAR Corporate; and where new teams can easily compete if they have the financial backing. I was a personal beneficiary of this policy – and at 23 years of age secured an agreement to led Toyota Motorsports into the NASCAR Craftsman Truck Series and went on to build  their competitive platform for their NASCAR operation.

I am very fortunate to have realized my lifelong dream of owning and operating a top tier NASCAR team; and even more rewarding to have brought Toyota Motor Sales their first two NASCAR victories.

However, this so-called free market is a complete farce! The teams must secure over 90% of their operating budgets from corporate sponsors – a/k/a advertisers. What is more infuriating, and what is not common knowledge, is that NASCAR and its sister company ISC retain the vast majority of the sport’s healthy television contract revenues, and even compete against the teams  for corporate sponsors -  the  lifeblood of the race teams.  As many know, AT&T was forced to leave Richard Childress Racing (RCR) as a primary sponsor because NASCAR Corporate signed an agreement with Nextel (now Sprint) with an exclusivity provision precluding other wireless and telecommunication companies from sponsoring any racing team. So with teams on the verge of a depression – and with automotive manufactures and corporate sponsors reducing their involvement – NASCAR is busy lining their pockets at the expense of the teams.

The most fundamental precept is that without teams – there is no NASCAR; but somehow teams have failed to act on this most basic concept to leverage their position within the sport. Maybe in the past the very wealthy owners such as Rick Hendrick, Jack Roush and Roger Penske were complacent and satisfied with receiving a nominal share in the television revenues; but in today’s economic climate and the ultra competitive advertising marketplace – teams who want to keep standing on their feet, need to act now and demand a fairer share in revenues – not for personal profit; but simply to survive.

The management of NASCAR has a real opportunity to bring forth a “rescue plan” to save teams from closing their doors and fracturing the appeal of NASCAR; which could have irreversible effects on future television contracts and ultimately the profits of the France Family. The beauty of the NASCAR “dictatorship” is that they don’t need to hold a vote or seek the opinions of others; instead, they can just swiftly act to provide an increase in the teams’ alterative revenues, which would enable teams to offer sponsors a lower cost of entry to advertise in NASCAR.

You can’t expect any company to spend $20M to sponsor a NASCAR Team – the ROI isn’t remotely competitive. NASCAR needs to think long term and be willing to sacrifice some of their short term earnings for long term stability and growth in the NASCAR economy.

Today marks the 4th anniversary of Toyota’s first NASCAR Victory during the Line-x 200 at Michigan International Speedway — (July 31, 2004). It was the 13th race for Toyota and my race team (Bang Racing). That historic day in NASCAR; also became a day I will not soon forget. Toyota and I made NASCAR history; setting records and I became more than just the youngest team owner in history — but now a victorious team owner at just 24 years of age.

It had been a turbulent few weeks leading up to this incredible day. Perhaps; in some ways, this made the win ever sweeter. I had recently made significant personnel changes to improve our racing operations and team chemistry; wanting to provide a better chance to score our first victory. Our two race teams entered Michigan International Speedway with a renewed confidence and attitude following the departure of Larry McReynolds from Bang Racing and we expected to demonstrate our team’s unity and potential at the Line-X 200, a race event sponsored by Line-X Spray-On Bedliners, one of our team’s primary sponsors.

We didn’t disappoint our sponsors or racing fans that day; our trucks combined to dominate the entire event finishing 1st and 3rd and bringing Toyota a victory in the backyard of the Big 3 American Carmakers. Much was noted in the press about this precocious internet whiz kid who came out of nowhere to lead Toyota’s flagship racing team and become the youngest NASCAR team owner; and then, breaking numerous NASCAR records and going on to make history as the most successful first year race team. It was a tremendous achievement for our new team; and an honor to herald the banner for Toyota in their inaugural year in NASCAR. But equally rewarding was having a childhood dream become a reality.

This dramatic victory has paved the way for today’s on-track performance of Toyota’s flagship NASCAR teams. But Bang Racing will always remain in the NASCAR and Toyota motorsports history books — as the team which brought Toyota their first victory in NASCAR. Without a doubt, this victorious day was etched in the hearts of many and will not be soon forgotten.

Alex Meshkin and Bang Racing Make History — Toyota’s First Win in NASCAR