Alex Meshkin » Sprint Cup

NASCAR in the Next Decade: The Storylines that will Shape the Future

Alex Meshkin — Sun, 10 Jan 2010 21:06:26 +0000

It is not possible to predict the road NASCAR will travel by the time we reach the final 2019 checkered flag, but it will be entertaining to speculate.

This decade begins as NASCAR tail spins in the wrong direction it’s a sharp contrast to the beginning of the last decade when NASCAR viewership, attendance and corporate interest were all surging. Today, all of those trends are in reverse, and this decade will truly define whether NASCAR remains as a mainstream sport or becomes another fledgling motorsport series.

I believe the major stories and events that will affect NASCAR in the coming years will have little or nothing to do with on track racing. So let me begin with a few predictions before we take our first green flag of 2010.

The Car of Tomorrow (COT)

By any account other than driver safety, the COT has been a miserable failure, and many point to the introduction of the COT as a defining moment in the accelerated decrease in fan interest. Since making its debut, the COT has been one of the most controversial rule changes to be introduced in NASCAR. There is no question that NASCAR will eventually make changes to their ill advised COT design, but the question is how dramatic and rapid will changes be introduced. I believe this decision will define the sport in the coming decade, because unless on-track racing significantly improves, NASCAR is doomed to become a second-rate sport with limited commercial exposure.

The Fall of Brian France

Mayfield vs. NASCAR is a fight NASCAR wishes it never fought. First, let me provide a bit of background information. In 2008 NASCAR implemented a clandestine drug testing policy where they refused to provide competitors a list of banned substances. And in 2009, long time driver Jeremy Mayfield, was the first driver to face a suspension for use of a banned substance. The drug was later identified as Methamphetamine, or more commonly known as Meth. (See my blog post in the summer of 2009 for more information – NASCAR in Peril: Victory for Jeremy Mayfield in Drug Testing Legal Battle). What NASCAR didn’t anticipate was Mayfield fighting back and filing a lawsuit to reinstate his license to drive in NASCAR. Both sides have won important decisions, but the court fight continues. However, just recently this soap opera is becoming even juicier, the U.S. District Court has ruled in favor of Mayfield to require sensitive documents about Brian France’s third (or fourth but who’s counting) marriage to be unsealed. Many insiders believe evidence will come forward further tarnishing Brian France’s ability to continue to lead NASCAR into the next decade.

Sprint as the Title Sponsor of the Cup Series

The elephant in the room is the pending expiration of the sport’s lucrative sponsorship agreement with Sprint as title sponsor of the NASCAR Cup Series. Back in the summer of 2003, when Sprint (f/k/a NEXTEL) agreed to a 10 year agreement with NASCAR, no one expected the rapid decline of fan interest and corporate sponsorship within just a couple of years. Ironically, Sprint too has blood on their hands for the sponsorship troubles of racing teams, which contribute to the overall problems in the sport. Sprint pushed out and prevented several companies from sponsoring racing teams, including AT&T Wireless who was prepared to enter NASCAR in 2004 as a primary sponsor, but Sprint through their exclusivity agreement with NASCAR, prevented AT&T from entering the sport. And then, after AT&T Wireless merged with Cingular Wireless (who was grandfathered into sport through their existing sponsorship agreement with RCR), Sprint pushed AT&T Wireless out once again. This was basically the same story for Verizon Wireless and Alltel. But I digress, we are discussing the future, and following the expiration of the current agreement with Sprint there is little doubt NASCAR will be left without a title sponsor of the Cup Series. And with the falling value of the title sponsorship rights, I expect NASCAR to be forced to sell the rights for a deep discount. But like everything else in NASCAR, the teams will bear the brunt of the negative financial consequences.

New Television Contracts

Not unlike, the situation with Sprint as the title sponsor, agreements with the existing television partners expire in a couple of years. And, with the enhanced competition from the NFL, all signs point to a significantly lower value being attributed to the NASCAR contract. The reduction in the sport’s revenues will further hamper smaller NASCAR teams from competing and consequently continue the most alarming trends of decreased fan viewership, attendance and corporate sponsorship.

The Retirement of Today’s Superstars

It’s no secret that Jeff Gordon has been suffering from significant back pain stemming from an on track accident. So the question begs, when will one of the greatest and most popular drivers hang up his racing helmet? Could the dominance of Jimmie Johnson accelerate Jeff Gordon’s retirement? And more so, Jeff Gordon isn’t the only NASCAR star that could retire in the next decade from full-time racing. Is it possible, if Dale Earnhardt Jr.’s performance doesn’t dramatically improve that he might head towards an early retirement? These questions will surely plague NASCAR in the forthcoming decade and could have far reaching effects on the entire sport. Even though in the past several years neither Gordon nor Earnhardt have been top performers on the track, they still remain the top two fan and sponsor favorites. And during a time when NASCAR is desperately trying to stop the hemorrhage of fan and corporate interest, the retirement of one or both iconic names could be devastating.

My negativity is an attempt to bring forth positive change to NASCAR. It is horrifying to watch a sport I have watched most of my life be destroyed. But without question, NASCAR, under the leadership of Bill France Sr. and Bill France Jr. made many wise decisions which helped to elevate the sport to the peaks in 2004. Unfortunately, the management decisions of NASCAR in the last half of the past decade have grossly undermined the sport. Even though the previous generations of the France Family were successful shepherds of NASCAR, under the faltering management of Brian France – NASCAR has failed its competitors, fans and sponsors. If the France Family truly loves NASCAR – then they must consider selling NASCAR to a new ownership group, who is prepared to rebuild the sport before all remains is a storied past.

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The Death Spiral Continues….NASCAR on Fox

Alex Meshkin — Sun, 07 Jun 2009 17:11:35 +0000

According to Sports Media Watch, FOX has its lowest rated NASCAR season ever.

A year of declines has concluded with FOX drawing its lowest average rating for NASCAR since the net began airing races in ’01.

Excluding the rain delayed Coca Cola 600, 12 NASCAR races averaged a 5.1/11 rating and 8.5 million viewers on FOX during the 2009 season, down 11% in ratings and 9% in viewers from a 5.7/12 and 9.3 million last year, and the lowest rated season ever for NASCAR on FOX.

Last Sunday’s Autism Speaks 400 drew a 4.0/10 final rating on FOX, down 11% from a 4.5/11 for the same race last year.

Every single, solitary NASCAR Sprint Cup telecast on FOX — all twelve races, the Budweiser Shootout and Daytona 500 Qualifying — saw declining ratings this season. 10 of the 12 races saw double-digit declines, including the last nine.

Despite the declines, NASCAR on FOX easily topped its competition. The 5.1 rating for NASCAR races on FOX is 65% higher than the 3.1 average for the ’09 NBA Playoffs (not including the ongoing NBA Finals) and 16% higher than the 4.4 for last year’s MLB Playoffs (including the World Series).

Additionally, the 8.5 million viewers is 42% higher than the 6.0 million for last year’s college football bowl games (including the BCS), and is only slightly off from the 8.9 million viewers for last year’s NCAA Tournament (including the Final Four).

Ratings for NASCAR on FOX in 2009.
Asterisk (*) indicates race was moved to another day because of rain.

Date	Net	Race	2009 rtg	2008 rtg	2007 rtg	vs. ’08	vs. ’07
Sun., 2/15/09	FOX	Daytona 500	9.2	10.2	10.1	-10%	-9%
Sun., 2/22/09	FOX	Auto Club 500	6.0	6.2	6.7	-3%	-10%
Sun., 3/1/09	FOX	Shelby 427	6.5	7.1	6.3	-8%	3%
Sun., 3/8/09	FOX	Kobalt Tools 500	5.5	6.4	5.2	-14%	6%
Sun., 3/22/09	FOX	Food City 500	4.5	5.5	5.1	-18%	-12%
Sun., 3/29/09	FOX	Goody’s Fast Pain Relief 500	4.6	5.3	5.3	-13%	-13%
Sun., 4/5/09	FOX	Samsung 500	4.7	5.4	5.6	-13%	-16%
Sat., 4/18/09	FOX	Subway Fresh Fit 500	3.6	4.4	4.4	-18%	-18%
Sun., 4/26/09	FOX	Aaron’s 499	5.0	5.7	5.4	-12%	-7%
Sat., 5/2/09	FOX	Russ Friedman 400	4.0	4.5	4.3*	-11%	-7%
Sat., 5/9/09	FOX	Southern 500	4.0	4.8	4.2*	-17%	-5%
Mon., 5/25/09	FOX	Coca Cola 600	3.3*	4.7	4.5	–	–
Sun., 5/31/09	FOX	Autism Speaks 400	4.0	4.5	2.3*	-11%	–
Average rating			5.1	5.7	5.6	-11%	-9%

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NASCAR’s Business Model Hits the Wall

Alex Meshkin — Sun, 25 Jan 2009 22:18:34 +0000

The Associated Press (AP) has reported Brian France, CEO of NASCAR, has directed his management to work with teams in developing new business models that can help them withstand the current economic crisis. As we are all aware, NASCAR teams rely on corporate sponsorship to fund the majority of their operating budgets, which is substantially different than any other major sport. Whereas, NFL, NBA, NHL and MLB teams participate in higher levels of revenue sharing as a result of a franchise business model.

“We’re trying to do more with less. That’s the difficult part of this economy,” France said following his state-of-the-sport address to media at NASCAR’s Research and Development Center. Just back in December, NASCAR issued a statement stating that NASCAR heading into 2009 was “strong”.

This outlook is a rather quick reversal, but perhaps the gravity of the current economic climate and mass sponsor deflections is making an impact.

Doing more with less? Working with teams to develop new business models? I apologize, but in my humble opinion, it’s a little too late for a half-baked plan. But even worse and what is frustrating is NASCAR’s continued unwillingness to restructure the distribution of television revenues to rightly supplement teams’ operating budgets.

What NASCAR needs is a business model which more closely replicates Formula 1 or a franchise structure like every other major sport. As a fervent advocate for team rights, I have repeatedly voiced the need to develop a franchise model that would enable teams to weather macroeconomic difficulties; and subsequently, become less cyclical and more stable during recessions and economic turmoil. The time for leadership, sacrifice and decisive action on behalf of the France Family is NOW. But to the contrary, the Brian France plan is nothing more than reinforcing their past strategies of working with teams to help locate and secure sponsors. While his intentions may be honorable; they are nevertheless naïve when considering there is a global economic recession; and specifically, when the NASCAR industry is in a depression of historic proportions. At this moment, I don’t believe there is a single corporation that is considering spending $15-$30 million required to fund a primary sponsorship program for a NASCAR Sprint Cup team. So I am rather befuddled with Brian France’s simplistic strategy to save the sport, which unfortunately in its current form will contribute to the sport’s certain collapse.

Is it possible that the past success of NASCAR is blinding Brian France from seeing the light? Reflecting back to 60 years ago to the earlier days of NASCAR, Bill France Sr. (Brian France’s grandfather) executed a flawless business plan to convince the then stock car racers and event promoters to become part of his newly formed organization and sanctioning body (NASCAR), whereby he gained complete control over stock car racing. The foundation of NASCAR’s “business model” problems ironically stem from the grand success of Bill Sr. and his unilateral control of a racing empire, including control over the majority of racing venues (International Speedway Corp) and the stock car sanctioning body. Over the past half-century, teams competing in NASCAR relied almost exclusively on corporate sponsors to fund their operations – enabling the France Family to retain a majority of the sports revenues and amass a large network of racing venues, and establishing NASCAR Holdings, an incredibly profitable wholly owned private company.

Those times have dramatically changed and for too long, NASCAR teams have tolerated the exploitation and willingly bore the total burden to exclusively fund their operations through advertising and sponsorship. The rapid increases in costs of racing and teams’ operating expenses of the past 5 years, combined with the minimal increase in sponsorship value – have brought the teams’ very existence into question.

One must wonder, how long can the France Family continue their racing monopoly? Historically, race teams have avoided conflict with the France Family; and the only entities to challenge the France Family’s monopoly have been race track owners, such as Burton Smith and Speedway Motorsports. Even through the France Family has weathered many possible anti-trust challenges with settling most disputes outside the judicial system; I believe the current financial crisis and advertising recession is about to test the resolve of the France Family and their prehistoric business model.

In a stark contrast to the past decade, NASCAR is falsely promoting an image of growth and strength by stating that 15 new organizations have applied for licensing to compete in the Sprint Cup Series. What they fail to mention and what many novices are unaware – almost all of those “new” teams are merely opportunistic racers attempting to profit by a method called: “start and park”, which allows them to collect sizable race winnings (in comparison to their expenses) with a team and car specifically built to just run one or two laps, enabling them to collect profits – all without adding ANY value to the sport. What a sad day it is for the diehard NASCAR fan.

As many of you know, I was the founder of Bang Racing which was NASCAR’s most successful first year team in history. At the young age of 23, I built and operated this highly successful team and we made history finishing 2nd in our first race (Daytona) and winning our 13th race (Michigan International Speedway), which was the first win for Toyota in NASCAR history. While all this is now historical facts found in the archives of NASCAR history, what is typically not understood is that even as a very competitive team, our business model was fundamentally flawed because generating a profit was nearly impossible. Simply put; the cost of running a NASCAR team far exceeds its sponsorship/advertising revenue potential and without significant “business model” changes by the France Family, teams are doomed for failure.

NASCAR must be the only sport where the most profitable teams are the biggest losers’ and where finishing dead-last or not even attempting to win makes more money than being a top competitor. Something is dreadfully wrong when the most competitive teams with great on track performance cannot survive because the costs of running their teams far exceed their revenue potential. The problem is clear: without teams receiving a larger share of the sports’ multi-billion dollar television contracts – there will be no strategy that can make viable a long-term solution for the sport – that is the simple reality.

However, being the “optimist”, I hope Brian France and will realize quickly that his family has the unilateral ability to deliver the change in business model the teams and sport require to survive.

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Will Jeff Gordon Win a Race in 2008?

Alex Meshkin — Wed, 24 Sep 2008 02:51:29 +0000

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Survival of the Fittest? – NASCAR Teams Look to Consolidation

Alex Meshkin — Wed, 17 Sep 2008 14:31:47 +0000

The global credit crisis may be slowing the M&A markets of Corporate America, however, mergers and acquisitions remain all the buzz in NASCAR. Back in July, I wrote Team Consolidation on the Horizon and it appears more likely than ever that Michael Waltrip Racing (MWR) led by Robert Kauffman will acquire Chip Ganassi Racing.
Additionally, speculation is running rampant – Gillette Evernham Motorsports (GEM) will acquire Bill Davis Racing (BDR). With BDR having yet to secure a replacement for Caterpillar for the #22 Toyota Camry, the value proposition of the proposed acquisition appears to be strictly around the coveted partnership with Toyota Motorsports and BDR’s ownership in Triad Racing Development. So it appears that if both transactions are completed; and Gillette changes from Dodge to Toyota – Dodge Motorsports will be left with just Penske Racing and Richard Petty Racing. Furthermore, I suspect at the root of Gillette’s motivation to acquire BDR is the reality that Dodge is looking to leave NASCAR all together. As my readers know, earlier this month Dodge announced their plans to leave the NASCAR Truck Series and with the founding Dodge Sprint Cup Team (Evernham) possibly joining the Toyota camp through the BDR acquisition – I think this will be most definitive indication that Dodge is saying “bye bye” to NASCAR.
It’s rather apparent, that in 2009 the pit lane of the NASCAR Sprint Cup series will be dominated and owned by just a few organizations. One must wonder – will NASCAR reverse their policy to limit teams to just 4 cars? – Because in 2010, Roush Fenway Racing will be required to “sell” one of their teams which is expected to be transferred to Yates Racing. However, NASCAR may reverse or postpone plans to prevent any additional sponsorship deflections.
With primary sponsors becoming increasingly elusive and operating costs continuing to soar, the benefits of team consolidation may be the only way for the NASCAR teams to have a fighting chance of survival. The fact is clear: The economies of scale and integrated marketing advantages are vital to remaining competitive on the track and attractive to the few remaining potential sponsors.
Is there any hope for NASCAR’s future? Yes, but not without some major changes and “redistribution of wealth”. NASCAR’s unfair revenue model and overall lack of innovation are the primary contributing causes to the sponsorship crisis for race teams. NASCAR needs to immediately revise the distribution of TV revenues to fairly compensate the race teams – or face the reality that the life expectancy of many NASCAR race teams are limited at best and more teams will continue to close their doors.

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NASCAR Sponsorships’ Unraveling

Alex Meshkin — Thu, 21 Aug 2008 16:50:21 +0000

Two brands and two industries synonymous with NASCAR – Coors Light (Coors Brewing) and Texaco Havoline (Chevron) have in subsequent years cut ties with Chip Ganassi Racing and ultimately vacated NASCAR team sponsorship. The association and sponsorship of these two industries – Beer and Gasoline/Oil companies with NASCAR have by far the greatest value proposition; and yet they are leaving NASCAR? What is going on here? Even for someone like me who has been writing about the difficult NASCAR sponsorship market is surprised and concerned with Texaco pulling the plug on its storied NASCAR sponsorship program.

What is the root cause of these two prominent and long-term sponsors leaving NASCAR? The answer is simple: there are too many compelling alternatives which have a greater ROI and offer far less risk. Let’s be honest, primary sponsors are asked to commit up to $25 Million to purchase “so called advertising” without any meaningful guaranties of consumer advertising impressions. Sounds rather ominous, right?

Of course, sponsoring Dale Earnhardt Jr. and any of the other top performing drivers offers a unique value proposition: residue value through their brand loyal fans, merchandise and alike. But the vast majority of sponsors are receiving a diminishing ROI by virtue of the rising costs of NASCAR sponsorship and decreased television viewership and race attendance. Since 2004, the cost of becoming a primary sponsor of a top performing Sprint Cup team has soared by over 60% while television ratings have dropped by about 10%. The dichotomy of rising sponsorship costs and decreased television exposure is a disturbing trend which is primarily affecting the worst performing teams but could soon start to challenge the most elite NASCAR teams. The change in corporate sponsors’ attitudes towards NASCAR sponsorship shouldn’t surprise anyone.

However, NASCAR and its Teams have either refused or do not understand how to evolve in the digital age where advertisers can purchase measureable and interactive advertising with far less risk and much greater ROI. Unlike, most “traditional” businesses that reinvent themselves and innovate; NASCAR has failed to bring forth any meaningful innovations that can directly increase sponsors’ exposure and ROI.

Chip Ganassi Racing has had and continues to be one of the best performing open-wheel racing teams; and clearly delivers on and off the track performance for Target in the IndyCar Series. But unfortunately, Chip Ganassi’s foray into NASCAR has been a bitter disappointment. In 2006, Chip Ganassi secured Juan Pablo Montoya to pilot the #42 Texaco Dodge in the Sprint Cup series and hoped the media attention of the former IndyCar and Indy 500 Champion would ignite the performance and success of his NASCAR team. But excluding a few promising races (mostly on road courses) Montoya’s NASCAR career has underperformed. It appears Chip Ganassi Racing may be another victim of the sponsorship race; and soon join NASCAR’s elite defunct team list.

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Stewart Haas Racing Taking Shape

Alex Meshkin — Tue, 15 Jul 2008 16:05:31 +0000

Yesterday, Ryan Newman officially announced his departure from Penske Racing. This much anticipated announcement comes days following the unveiling of Stewart Haas Racing. Is this just a mere coincidence? Or will the two Indiana natives be teammates in 2009? All signs point to a Tony Stewart and Ryan Newman duo which ought to light up the NASCAR Sprint Cup in 2009.

The 2008 Daytona 500 Champion career win for Ryan Newman failed to live up to the potential of his early years in NASCAR. Would a new team be the answer to reignite his career? Perhaps, but I suspect that the spark needed for Ryan Newman’s career may simply be to reunite with Matt Borland his former Crew Chief and current Director of Competition of HAAS CNC Racing (Stewart Haas Racing).

I believe these two determined and talented racers have the ability and compatibility to become brilliant teammates and possibly championship contenders.

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Will Kyle Busch Win More than 13 NASCAR Sprint Cup Races in 2008?

Alex Meshkin — Sun, 13 Jul 2008 14:35:09 +0000

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The Verdict is In –Tony Stewart’s 2009 Season

Alex Meshkin — Fri, 11 Jul 2008 23:18:09 +0000

Shortly after the official announcement from Tony Stewart about his plans to race under the rebranded Stewart Haas Racing (formerly, HAAS CNC Racing) for 2009 and beyond – I posted a poll question asking my readers about their predication for Tony Stewart’s success in 2009.

Personally, I am shocked by the overwhelming predication of more than 5 wins for Stewart. While I personally agree with my readers, that Tony Stewart will find more success next year than this – 5+ victories would be a tremendous achievement.
The most intriguing aspect to the Stewart announcement is the further strengthening of the Hendrick Motorsports umbrella. Under the support of Hendrick Motorsports, Stewart Haas Racing will field at least 2 competitive Sprint Cup teams and JR Motorsports will continue in the Nationwide Series. In 2009, Chevrolet will support 10 NASCAR Sprint Cup championship contending race teams: 4 with Hendrick Motorsports, 2 with Stewart Haas Racing, and 4 with Richard Childress Racing (RCR).
The Stewart announcement provides Chevrolet and GM Racing a major conquest in the pursuit to fend off the aggressive maneuvers of Toyota Motorsports and Toyota Racing Development (TRD). As a former business partner of TRD and the Lee White led organization, I look forward to the strategic plans and business maneuvers of Toyota Motorsports in the quest for NASCAR dominance.

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NASCAR All-Star Boredom

Alex Meshkin — Wed, 21 May 2008 20:14:38 +0000

What is the COT? The Format? The Track? It doesn’t really matter because at the end of the day, the 2008 NASCAR All-Star Race was utterly boring. Honestly, I was shocked, because the All-Star race is normally one of the highlights to the long NASCAR racing season. The format traditionally included variables and rules promoting side-by-side “Saturday Night” style short track racing, but on a one and half mile tri-oval which provided fans every bit of their money’s worth of excitement. But in 2008, format was tweaked and with COT – it was like watching paint dry.

One of the most comical aspects to the event was listening to Darrel Waltrip, Mike Joy and Larry McReynolds pretend that the event was SO exciting and we all should be more excited about the COT in NASCAR. Are you kidding? They must have been watching the 1987 All-Star Race (Winston) rather than the live event.

Furthermore, Kasey Kahne won the race while not even qualifying to participate based upon his on-track performance; his inclusion in the event was picked via an American Idol style vote. While, I know Kasey personally and think he is a great guy and well deserving to participate in the NASCAR Sprint All-Star Race, the purest in me feels somewhat robbed by compromising the all-star event in an attempt to attract a larger audience.

In any case, rules, COT, and/or track – the days of the hard charging driver willing to make the “pass in the grass” ended with the untimely death of the legendary Dale Earnhardt Sr. Perhaps, Helio Castroneves in the Indy 500 will feed our need for on-track fireworks.

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